Israel Remains in Southern Lebanon Amid Escalation Fears

Israel is maintaining its military presence in southern Lebanon, emphasizing that withdrawal from controlled border areas will only occur if the security of northern Israeli settlements is guaranteed and strategic objectives are met. This stance comes amid increasing security warnings of potential renewed direct conflict and concerns that Beirut could be affected by regional escalation involving Iran. Discussions on these developments were held on i24NEWS Arabic's "In This Evening" program, featuring former military secretary to Israeli defense ministers Eitan Dangot and strategic affairs expert the strategic affairs expert.

The Israeli military assesses open possibilities for escalation, particularly given indications of Hezbollah rebuilding its capabilities in Beirut. Despite Hezbollah sustaining strikes on its leadership and infrastructure since October 7, the Israeli military believes the organization is not the same as before. Israel's defense and deterrence systems are reportedly fully prepared for any confrontation, whether initiated independently by Hezbollah or under Iranian direction.

Technical and military negotiations, hosted by the U.S. in Florida, are ongoing, with differing views on their success. Supporters of the talks see continued dialogue, backed by the U.S., as reflecting a desire among many Lebanese for political stability, separate from Tehran's agenda. However, Dr. El-Assar expressed skepticism, arguing that negotiations are with parties not fully representing the Lebanese populace. He also raised concerns about the historical implications of Israeli troop presence in southern Lebanon and the potential for civilian casualties and significant battlefield losses.

The Lebanese front is viewed as intrinsically linked to the strategic triangle of the United States, Iran, and Israel. Israeli analysts believe Hezbollah's actions are tied to Iran's overall strategy, with any decision for broad escalation depending solely on Tehran's calculations regarding nuclear, navigation, and energy issues. Israeli political circles are looking towards the period after the U.S. elections on November 3, anticipating that Israeli policy towards Lebanon and the dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure will remain consistent, regardless of potential government changes in Israel. The possibility of broader regional arrangements, such as peace and normalization agreements, is seen as contingent on international efforts to curb Iranian influence.