Pollster Warns Netanyahu's Gamble May Cost Him Majority
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
Pollster Tzuriel Sharon believes Prime Minister Netanyahu's handling of Ofer Winter's new right-wing party was a strategic error that may prevent his bloc from achieving a Knesset majority. Sharon noted significant discrepancies in recent polls and pointed to the strengthening of Naftali Bennett's party. He also suggested that a unity government might be formed if no bloc secures a clear majority after the upcoming elections.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Pollster Tzuriel Sharon warns Netanyahu's handling of Ofer Winter's party may cost him a Knesset majority.
- Sharon highlights significant discrepancies between various television polls ahead of the October 27 elections.
- Naftali Bennett's political party has shown recent strengthening, recovering to around 12-13 seats.
- Winter's party is polling near the electoral threshold, needing approximately 20,000 more votes to pass.
- Sharon does not rule out the possibility of a unity government if no bloc achieves a clear majority.
Prime Minister Netanyahu made a significant gamble regarding Ofer Winter's new right-wing party, potentially costing his bloc a Knesset majority, according to Tzuriel Sharon, owner of Direct Polls and a pollster for i24NEWS. Sharon explained that a strategic error was made in handling Winter's party, which could have helped Netanyahu's bloc secure a majority. He noted that Winter's party is currently polling close to the electoral threshold, with an estimated 20,000 votes needed to cross it.
Sharon highlighted significant discrepancies between various television polls, suggesting that some polls may overrepresent certain voter bases, such as protest voters or those with high engagement in surveys. He cited the example of Moshe Feiglin's party in 2019, which polled well but ultimately failed to pass the threshold. Sharon estimates Winter's party has a 20-30% chance of exceeding the threshold, while Yaron Zelekha's party has a much lower chance, around 10%.
He also pointed to the strengthening of Naftali Bennett's political standing, noting his party has recovered from a low of seven seats to around 12-13 seats in recent polls. Sharon suggested that some right-wing voters who previously supported Bennett might be returning to him, and that both Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman are seen by some as aligning with right-wing security and political views, even if not part of the Netanyahu bloc.
Discussing the broader polling discrepancies, Sharon admitted difficulty in explaining the wide gaps, sometimes reaching 12 seats, between polls from different channels. He stated that Direct Polls' surveys have shown Netanyahu's bloc consistently between 57 and 60 seats. Sharon also expressed doubt about polls showing the Likud party below 25 seats, asserting his data does not indicate such a significant voter exodus.
Looking ahead, Sharon does not rule out the possibility of a unity government or a broader coalition if no bloc secures a clear majority. He believes internal Israeli pressure, and potentially American influence, could lead to such an outcome. He cautioned that pre-election party leader statements may not reflect post-election realities and expressed hope that Israel would not face another election cycle soon.
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