Israel and US Prepare for Escalation Against Iran Amid Political Calendars

Dozens of Israeli fighter jets, accompanied by refueling aircraft, recently flew approximately 1,300 kilometers from Israel through Syria and Iraq, nearing the Iranian border. This flight path mimicked routes used in previous Israeli strikes on Iran, but the planes returned without attacking. According to Axios, Israel informed the U.S. beforehand that this was a drill and a show of force intended to deter Tehran from acting against Israel before the upcoming Knesset elections. However, not all in Washington were convinced it was solely a drill, with some U.S. officials suggesting Israel hoped for an Iranian response that could reignite wider conflict.

This incident is one of several recent developments indicating that Israel and the United States may be preparing for another round in their confrontation with Iran. Detailed attack plans, expanding military preparations, stalled diplomatic efforts, and the influence of upcoming political events, the Israeli elections on October 27 and U.S. midterm elections on November 3, paint a complex picture.

According to the Financial Times, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to renew extensive attacks on Iran as early as the weekend of October 10. The IDF reportedly prepared for a multi-day operation targeting nuclear facilities, Iranian regime infrastructure, and civilian sites, including power plants. This planned attack was intended to be more potent than the one launched by Israel and the U.S. in February. However, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly opposed renewing hostilities at that time, wishing to avoid a major offensive before the U.S. midterm elections. Trump publicly stated the U.S. would not attack Iran before November 3 but did not rule out action afterward, and reports suggest he is considering various military options.

Further reports from the New York Times, citing informed U.S. and other sources, indicate that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have developed plans for renewed attacks on Iran after the U.S. midterms. These plans involve a short but intense operation targeting nuclear facilities, missile and drone systems, and energy infrastructure, with one option detailing a concentrated campaign of about three days. Some involved parties believe that severe damage to the Iranian economy could pressure the regime into making concessions.

Military exercises have intensified, including flights over Iraq simulating attack routes. The U.S. has also deployed a third aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, to the Middle East, potentially joining the USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington already in the Arabian Sea. This buildup, along with an additional Marine unit, will bring approximately 10,000 U.S. military personnel to the region, providing Trump with more operational options. The unannounced visit of U.S. Secretary of Defense the US Secretary of Defense to Israel's Ovda base, where U.S. aircraft are stationed, and his meeting with Netanyahu to discuss regional threats and cooperation, further underscore the heightened military activity.

Meanwhile, tensions extend beyond Israel and Iran. The U.S. has ordered non-essential government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia due to escalating Houthi attacks in Yemen, which recently struck King Fahd International Airport in Dammam. This situation highlights the risk of a wider regional war, as Iran could retaliate against U.S. interests in the Gulf, shipping lanes, and energy infrastructure. Iran, for its part, is reportedly stalling negotiations with Washington, hoping to weaken Trump politically before the midterms, while preparing for potential Israeli and U.S. strikes. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Qaani stated that any U.S. attack would be met with a response.

The timing of potential actions is also influenced by the Israeli elections. Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir reportedly warned his U.S. counterparts that renewed conflict before October 27 could lead to the election's postponement due to anticipated Iranian missile responses. Some Israeli security officials also reportedly favor avoiding unnecessary escalation before the vote, fearing that a miscalculation, a drill mistaken for an attack, a response deemed an opening salvo, or a deterrence measure spiraling out of control, could ignite the region. The current situation is characterized by each side attempting to leverage time to its advantage: Israel aims to prevent Iran from rebuilding its military and nuclear capabilities, the U.S. seeks to apply pressure without entering a politically sensitive conflict, and Iran tries to buy time and avoid significant concessions. While detailed plans exist, Trump has previously postponed operations, and the ultimate decision remains his, balancing the possibility of action with continued negotiation.