Israeli Expert Calls Iran Attack Plan Before Elections 'Madness'

A report by the Financial Times on October 10th, detailing Israel's alleged plan to attack Iran, which was reportedly halted by U.S. President Donald Trump, has raised significant questions. Dani Sitynovich, former head of the Iran desk in Military Intelligence's Research Division and currently a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, commented on the situation. He stated that there is no justification for a war with Iran at this time, especially so close to Israeli elections, and even after them. Sitynovich noted that Iran is not on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons and has not returned to its previous missile capabilities. He argued that attacking Iran now lacks strategic necessity and appears to be driven by political considerations.

Sitynovich elaborated that any potential Israeli strike on Iran's energy infrastructure would not lead to regime collapse, as some might believe, nor would it prevent Iran from retaliating broadly against Israel. He emphasized that previous wars with Iran have not achieved their objectives, and the country continues to arm itself, along with other adversaries like the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias. He warned that a new war would ignite all fronts, leading to a regional conflict with devastating consequences for the Israeli economy and daily life.

Regarding reports of Israeli warplanes flying over Iraq and Syria towards Iran for military exercises, Sitynovich called it a dangerous event. He suggested that such actions, if true, could be an attempt to provoke Iran into firing first, thereby creating a pretext for Israeli retaliation. He also highlighted Israel's vulnerability regarding interceptors and the potential for a wider regional conflict involving the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and potentially Hezbollah, especially given the reduced U.S. presence in Iraq.

Sitynovich stressed the danger of conflating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political considerations with Israel's strategic interests. He urged a thorough analysis of why previous military campaigns against Iran failed to achieve their stated goals before embarking on another potentially more dangerous conflict. He also underscored the importance of maintaining strategic coordination with the United States but asserted that Israel must ultimately determine its own course of action.

The Financial Times report, citing three sources, stated that the IDF was preparing for several days of combat against Iran in mid-October, targeting civilian infrastructure like power plants and nuclear facilities. The plan, reportedly pushed by Netanyahu, was halted by Trump. The report also mentioned that the Pentagon had presented Trump with five plans for targeted operations in Iran and against the Houthis, which were discussed with Netanyahu. The IDF is reportedly on heightened alert, with short leaves canceled for all units starting October 22nd. Netanyahu's office and the IDF declined to comment on the publication.