Middle Eastern Nations Await Israeli Election Results With Bated Breath

Countries across the Middle East are closely watching the upcoming Israeli elections, with varied expectations for potential policy shifts. While some anticipate a change in Israeli policy and government composition, others surprisingly hope for the continuation of the current status quo.

Before October 7, the government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, including ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, was reportedly on a path to expanding the circle of peace in the region. However, the events of October 7 froze these efforts, leading to widespread Israeli military actions across the region with no clear end in sight. King Abdullah II of Jordan's strong remarks at the UN this year reflect a growing aversion among regional leaders to what they perceive as the Netanyahu government's erratic policies since October 7, 2023.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, who had previously spoken of imminent normalization, has adopted a different tone. He recently condemned the ongoing Israeli attacks in Palestine and Gaza, stating, "Our efforts will not cease until the Palestinian people receive their rights, including the establishment of an independent state." Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar'a is also keenly interested in the election outcomes. Despite successfully ousting the Assad regime and expelling Iran and Hezbollah from Syria, al-Shar'a has not yet secured Israeli concessions regarding a withdrawal from southern Syria and hopes for a change post-election.

Within Syria, a Druze minority in the Sweida province believes that Israeli military intervention against al-Shar'a's regime saved them from annihilation. Druze Sheikh Marwan Kiwan from Mount Hermon in southern Syria has even called for a Nobel Peace Prize for Netanyahu for protecting the Druze people. A Lebanese Druze politician has also praised Netanyahu, particularly after the elimination of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, urging Druze in Israel to vote for him as the protector of Mount Hermon against al-Shar'a's rule.

Some voices in the region are pleased with the current Israeli government's significant strikes against Iran and its proxies, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon. Charles Jabbour of the Lebanese Forces party, which opposes Hezbollah, stated that "few leaders have done what Netanyahu has done." However, the regional picture concerning the upcoming elections is complex. Arab media show increasing interest in potential successors to Netanyahu, with former IDF Chief of Staff and Yesh Atid chairman Gadi Eisenkot symbolizing a possible change. An article in the Saudi magazine Al Majalla questioned, "Will Gadi Eisenkot become the leader of Israel?" Regardless of who leads Israel, the challenges in managing relations with the region will be substantial.