US Defense Secretary Visits Israel Amid Iran Tensions and US Elections

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited Israel on October 20, emphasizing the importance of ensuring Iran never obtains nuclear weapons. The visit occurred amidst complex geopolitical dynamics involving U.S. elections, potential escalation with Iran, and internal Israeli politics. Hegseth met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Ovda airbase, with the meeting also attended by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and UAE representatives. The timing of Hegseth's visit, just a week before Israeli elections, is considered highly sensitive and could increase anxiety in Tehran, raising the risk of miscalculation.

Simultaneously, reports emerged of a third U.S. aircraft carrier being dispatched to the Middle East. President Donald Trump also published a statement supporting Netanyahu, which Netanyahu claimed was a surprise. However, analysts suggest Trump may expect reciprocal actions from Israel on issues ranging from Gaza and Lebanon to the composition of the next Israeli government. An Arab diplomat estimated a high probability of a joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran shortly after the U.S. midterm elections.

Trump reportedly aims to pressure Israel into forming a national unity government including Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, excluding extremist politicians, to facilitate the expansion of the Abraham Accords post-war. Meanwhile, reports indicate preliminary agreements between the U.S. and Iran regarding a return to negotiations, including preventing further military escalation and unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian funds held in Qatar. However, past similar reports have not led to progress, and an Iranian security official cited uncertainty over who holds decision-making authority in Washington as a major obstacle.

Israeli officials assess the likelihood of an attack on Iran before the upcoming Israeli elections as 30%, primarily as a preemptive strike against an imminent Iranian threat. Post-election, this probability rises to 70%. The period between November 3 and January 3 is seen as critical, especially if Trump loses control of Congress, potentially leading to an attack order before the new Congress convenes. Some Israeli officials believe Netanyahu is eager to strike Iran but is being restrained by the U.S., with Hegseth's visit intended to ensure no unexpected actions are taken by Israel.

Trump's support for Netanyahu is seen by some as driven by domestic political considerations, particularly to appeal to evangelical Christian voters. However, it also places Netanyahu in a position of owing Trump, potentially leading to concessions on issues like the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Israeli troop withdrawal from Syria. Netanyahu's primary goal is seen as regime change in Iran, for which he might be willing to compromise on other fronts. The heightened tensions increase the risk of miscalculation, with Iran potentially launching a preemptive strike. Israel has signaled that any Iranian mistake would result in an unprecedented response.