Ofer Winter Could Be Biggest Beneficiary of Benny Gantz's Election Withdrawal
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
A new poll indicates that political candidate Ofer Winter may gain the most from Benny Gantz's withdrawal from the elections, potentially attracting 10,000 of Gantz's former voters. This boost could be critical for Winter's party, which is polling near the electoral threshold. However, nearly a third of Gantz's voters remain undecided, leaving the final distribution of votes uncertain. Gantz withdrew shortly before early voting began, citing a lack of sufficient poll improvement.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Ofer Winter may gain 10,000 votes from Benny Gantz's former supporters following Gantz's election withdrawal.
- Winter's party is polling near the electoral threshold, making even small vote gains potentially decisive for Knesset entry.
- Nearly a third of Gantz's former voters are still undecided, leaving the final vote distribution uncertain.
- Gantz withdrew from the elections before early voting commenced, citing insufficient poll improvement.
- Gantz's departing voters are considering multiple parties, not consolidating behind a single bloc.
- Winter's potential strengthening could impact the Likud's campaign strategy regarding vote wastage claims.
A new internal poll suggests that Ofer Winter, a political candidate, stands to gain the most from Benny Gantz's withdrawal from the upcoming elections. The survey indicates that 24.2% of Gantz's former voters, an estimated 10,000 individuals, might shift their support to Winter.
This potential influx of votes could be crucial for Winter's party, which has been polling precariously close to the electoral threshold, sometimes below it. With the race being so tight, even a few thousand additional votes could determine whether his party enters the Knesset. The estimated quarter-mandate gain from Gantz's voters, while small in absolute terms, carries significant weight for a party fighting for its political survival.
However, the situation remains fluid, as nearly a third of Gantz's former constituents are still undecided about their next vote. These undecided voters represent a significant bloc that other parties will likely compete for in the remaining days before the election, potentially impacting the fortunes of parties hovering near the electoral threshold.
Gantz announced his withdrawal the day before early voting began for soldiers, a move seen by some in the opposition as an attempt to prevent vote wastage. Despite believing he could improve his party's standing, Gantz ultimately decided to withdraw when it became clear there was no significant recovery in the polls and early voting was imminent, after which votes for a party failing to pass the threshold would be lost.
The poll also suggests that Gantz's voters are not consolidating behind a single bloc. Some are considering Winter, others the Likud party, and some are leaning towards candidates like Gadi Eisenkot, Yoaz Hendel, or Yair Golan. This fragmentation means Gantz's departure could affect multiple political camps, depending on where his voters ultimately land. The potential strengthening of Winter's candidacy due to Gantz's exit could also complicate the Likud's campaign strategy, particularly their efforts to persuade voters that supporting Winter is a wasted vote.
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