Sociologist: Trump's Support Aids Netanyahu Ahead of Israeli Elections

With Israel's decisive elections just a week away, sociologist Yossi Tattika provided insights into the political landscape and party strategies to the newspaper Maariv. Tattika noted that security issues are increasingly dominating the political agenda as the election nears, pushing other topics aside. The central question for voters, he explained, is whether they fear the continuation of the current government or the consequences of changing leadership at this specific moment.

Tattika believes that U.S. President Donald Trump's support benefits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu can leverage his personal relationship with the White House as a key national security factor, suggesting that a change in leadership might jeopardize it. The sociologist predicts Netanyahu will focus on Iran, his own experience, and the risks of leadership change, while also warning against a government led by Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu's strategy will involve not only attracting new voters but also re-engaging disillusioned supporters.

Conversely, Eisenkot is expected to argue that security threats necessitate a change in leadership to restore public trust and professional decision-making. Tattika assesses that Eisenkot will try to link the country's future responsibility to his ability to handle upcoming threats, but will need to convince voters he can form a functional government beyond his military experience.

Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the 'Our Home Israel' party, is anticipated to emphasize his past warnings, defense minister experience, and decision to leave the government. Tattika suggests Lieberman will position himself as a security alternative to the current government, focusing on conscription and state management, and will aim to persuade voters that his party can influence government composition and decisions.

Regarding other parties, Tattika stated that Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid will highlight their experience governing the country. Ofer Winter will focus on his military background, while Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich will aim to shape the direction of a future right-wing government. Ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties will concentrate on mobilizing their voters and influencing the next coalition. Handel, Tattika noted, will seek to offer a blend of security experience and political pragmatism without fully aligning with the main blocs, though his challenge will be demonstrating his party's influence.

Tattika concluded that current polls do not clearly indicate a winner, with discrepancies between different research centers. He believes the focus on security in the remaining days could benefit Lieberman. Ultimately, each party will try to leverage its voters' primary fears to drive turnout. "Netanyahu will argue that change is a risk. His opponents will argue that the risk lies in his continued tenure," Tattika explained, adding that many votes will come from undecided individuals who have formed opinions on leaders but not their voting choice. He predicts turnout may be significantly higher than in recent elections.