Demographic Growth of Ultra-Orthodox Community Doesn't Guarantee More Knesset Seats
Translated & summarized from JDN by baba
An analysis by 'HaBrohmetro' of 'JDN News' reveals that the demographic growth of Israel's ultra-Orthodox population is not leading to a proportional increase in Knesset seats for Haredi parties. Factors such as the young age of the population, shifting voter bases, and votes lost to parties below the electoral threshold are contributing to this trend. Projections for Shas and United Torah Judaism combined estimate 17 seats, with individual party ceilings at ten and eight seats respectively. The analysis also notes the potential impact of Arab voter turnout on the overall electoral landscape.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Ultra-Orthodox demographic growth is not translating into a proportional increase in Knesset seats for their parties.
- Factors include the young age of the Haredi population, shifting voter bases, and votes lost to parties below the threshold.
- Current projections estimate Shas and United Torah Judaism will win a combined 17 seats in the next election.
- United Torah Judaism has seen steady, albeit slow, seat growth, while Shas's gains are offset by losses among traditional voters.
- A significant portion of the Haredi population is not yet eligible to vote, delaying the full demographic impact.
- Shifting voting patterns and the impact of votes for lists failing to cross the electoral threshold also affect seat allocation.
The demographic growth of the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) population in Israel is not translating into a proportional increase in Knesset seats for their parties, according to an analysis by 'HaBrohmetro' of 'JDN News'. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon, including the young age structure of the Haredi population, shifts in support for parties like Shas among non-Haredi voters, list splits, and votes for parties failing to cross the electoral threshold. The current projection for Shas and United Torah Judaism combined is 17 seats, based on 13 surveys and a demographic model, though survey data suggests around 16 seats and the demographic model indicates 19.
United Torah Judaism, whose voters are almost exclusively Haredi, has seen its share of votes grow from 3.3% in 1992 to 5.9% in 2022, translating to an average increase of one seat per decade. Shas's situation is more complex, with an estimated 55% of its voters being Haredi and the rest primarily traditional. While Shas won 17 seats in 1999, its support among traditional voters has waned over the years, offsetting gains within the Haredi community.
A significant factor is the age distribution: 57% of Haredim are under 20, meaning they are not yet eligible to vote. While the Haredi population constitutes 14.3% of the total population, they represent only about 10% of eligible voters. The analysis estimates that out of approximately 85,000 votes added to Haredi parties per four-year term due to demographic growth, about 46,000 are needed simply to maintain their relative electoral share, leaving only about one additional seat.
Furthermore, voting patterns show a slight erosion of loyalty to traditional Haredi parties, with a decrease in Haredi voters choosing them in 2022 compared to 2021. The impact of votes for lists that do not pass the electoral threshold, such as Eli Yishai's 'Yahad' in 2015, also dilutes the overall strength of Haredi parties. The analysis also considers the potential impact of Arab voter turnout, projecting that a higher turnout could increase the number of votes required for a seat, potentially affecting coalition dynamics.
