Netanyahu's Economic Growth Claims Questioned Amid Election Season
Translated & summarized from Globes by baba
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Israel's 2026 growth forecast of 4.5% is the highest in the OECD, citing a table he shared. While the IMF does project this growth, analysis shows Israel's GDP per capita in purchasing power parity only returned to 2022 levels in 2025 after war-related declines. The table Netanyahu shared also contained significant factual errors and misattributed data sources. The Prime Minister's office defended the claims, but experts argue the context of per capita recovery and the table's inaccuracies complicate the economic picture.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed Israel's 2026 growth forecast of 4.5% is the highest in the OECD.
- The IMF projects 4.5% real GDP growth for Israel in 2026, the highest among OECD nations.
- Analysis shows Israel's GDP per capita in purchasing power parity only returned to 2022 levels in 2025.
- The table shared by Netanyahu contained numerous factual errors and misattributed data sources.
- Experts argue that GDP per capita in PPP is a more relevant metric than overall GDP growth.
- Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich published a similar table with correct IMF data in French.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently posted on social media a table claiming Israel's 2026 growth forecast of 4.5% is the highest among OECD countries, stating "The Israeli economy is booming!". While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) does project 4.5% real GDP growth for Israel in 2026, surpassing other OECD nations, a deeper analysis reveals a more complex picture. Economists note that for international comparisons, GDP per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) is a more relevant metric. Data from the World Bank indicates that Israel's GDP per capita in constant PPP terms saw a decline in 2023 and 2024 due to the war, only returning to its 2022 level in 2025. Furthermore, Israel's GDP per capita in PPP terms remains significantly lower than the OECD average.
Beyond the per capita figures, the table shared by Netanyahu is riddled with inaccuracies. It incorrectly cites the OECD as its source for the 4.5% figure, which actually comes from the IMF. The OECD's latest forecast for Israel, from June, projected 3.3% growth. The table also misattributes growth rates to various countries, such as Turkey and Denmark, and contains internal inconsistencies, like listing Norway twice with different figures and omitting South Korea. It is speculated that a translation error may have occurred, as a similar table with correct data was published in French by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, explicitly citing the IMF.
Responding to the scrutiny, the Likud party stated that they never claimed the data was from the OECD, but rather the IMF, and that Israel's PPP has significantly increased. However, the table itself did not mention the IMF. The party also provided figures on current PPP, which experts argue are less relevant for assessing long-term trends than constant dollar values. While the headline's core claim of a 4.5% growth forecast is supported by the IMF, the context of per capita recovery and the table's numerous errors cast doubt on the overall portrayal of economic prosperity.
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