Trump Endorses Netanyahu, Threatens Iran Ahead of Israeli Election

U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the upcoming October 27 election, stating that America would have to act alone against Iran if Israel had a different leader. Trump published his statement on his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday, breaking his previous stance of neutrality in Israeli election campaigns. He described Netanyahu as a "great warrior prime minister and an even greater partner for peace" and warned that Washington might "finish the job" against Iran soon, noting that Iran has been "systematically destroyed militarily and financially."

Trump's endorsement comes as polls show a tight race in Israel. A "Haaretz" tracker indicated that the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party was projected to win 52 seats, while Netanyahu's "Likud" coalition was expected to secure 51 out of the 120 Knesset seats, with no party forecasting an outright majority. Previously, Trump had spoken about his popularity in Israel and U.S. aid to the country when asked about Netanyahu's potential re-election.

Experts suggest Trump's statement is a political boost for Netanyahu, whose campaign has been struggling. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, noted that while the endorsement strengthens Netanyahu's narrative of indispensability to U.S.-Israel relations, its impact on voters might be limited due to existing divisions over his leadership and the war with Iran. Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London's School of Security Studies, called it a "political gift" that could mobilize a few undecided "Likud" voters but wouldn't secure a coalition majority.

The conflict with Iran, which began in February with U.S. and Israeli strikes, has seen a pause in hostilities. Analysts speculate about potential renewed strikes before or after the U.S. midterm elections in November. Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz have impacted oil prices, with Brent crude futures reaching $107.57 per barrel on Monday. Iran recently proposed reopening the strait within seven days if sanctions were lifted and a naval blockade ended, a proposal that has not been met with a U.S. response. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated the offer on Sunday, warning that Iran had become stronger after previous U.S. actions and that further confrontation would be at Washington's risk.

Vakil believes Trump's endorsement signals a renewed political alignment and potential for future joint military action, making it harder for him to distance the U.S. from any conflict. She added that Iran might interpret the U.S. statement as confirmation of aligned U.S.-Israel goals. While Trump indicated he would not attack Iran before the U.S. elections, reports suggest the Pentagon has prepared plans for strikes. Krieg assesses the likelihood of immediate U.S.-Israeli strikes as low unless Iran provokes a response, but sees a greater risk of uncontrolled escalation in Hormuz after November 3.