Pollster Analyzes Trump's Swift Endorsement of Netanyahu
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Senior pollster Shmuel Rosner predicts neither political bloc will achieve the 61 seats needed for a coalition, citing significant Arab voter turnout. He also analyzed young voters' trends, noting a slight lean towards political extremes. Rosner believes former President Donald Trump's endorsement of Benjamin Netanyahu stemmed from Trump's assessment that Netanyahu was not facing defeat and that supporting him would not be embarrassing, especially given the likely coalition challenges.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Senior pollster Shmuel Rosner predicts neither bloc will reach 61 seats for a coalition.
- Rosner anticipates significant Arab voter turnout, contributing 14-15 seats.
- Young voters show unique trends, with slightly more support for Otzma Yehudit and Democrats.
- Rosner suggests Trump's support for Netanyahu was based on assessing Netanyahu's electoral strength.
- The pollster believes Trump could support Netanyahu without embarrassment due to coalition difficulties.
Senior pollster Shmuel Rosner believes that neither of the two main political blocs is likely to secure the 61 seats needed to form a coalition government in the upcoming elections. He anticipates a significant Arab voter turnout, predicting they will win 14 or 15 seats, which will make it difficult for either bloc to reach the 61-seat threshold out of 105 total seats.
Rosner also addressed the question of whether young, first-time voters will be decisive in the election. Based on weekly separate surveys of young voters, he observed unique trends, including slightly higher support for the Otzma Yehudit party and the Democrats. He noted that young voters generally lean towards the political extremes compared to older voters, but added that "young people in Israel are people who mature at a very young age," implying they resemble their parents.
Regarding former President Donald Trump's strong endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Rosner suggested that Trump likely realized Netanyahu was not facing a crushing defeat and that supporting him would not be embarrassing. He further explained that since Israel is heading towards a situation where neither bloc is poised to form a coalition, Trump could "get out of obligation" by offering his support.
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