Trump's Endorsement of Netanyahu Unlikely to Sway Israeli Voters, Analysts Say
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly backed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israeli elections, but Israeli media analyses suggest the endorsement may not significantly impact voters. Polls indicate Netanyahu's Likud party is set for a substantial loss. Analysts point to past instances where Trump's foreign endorsements did not guarantee wins, and note Netanyahu's current unpopularity in the U.S. could even be a liability.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Donald Trump declared "absolute" support for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu days before elections.
- Israeli media analyses suggest Trump's endorsements have a limited impact on foreign election outcomes.
- Polls predict a significant drop in seats for Netanyahu's Likud party, from 32 to 18-21.
- Analysts question Trump's timing, citing Netanyahu's unpopularity among U.S. voters.
- Trump's past interventions in elections in Honduras, Colombia, Hungary, and Brazil yielded mixed results.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced his "absolute" support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, just 10 days before Israeli elections. However, analyses published in Israeli media on Monday suggest that Trump's endorsements of foreign candidates have not always guaranteed victory, especially when local polls indicate weakness.
Channel 12 reported that Trump has intervened "crudely" in foreign elections, endorsing at least six right-wing candidates during his presidency. Yet, his preferred candidates have not always won, and in cases where they did, they often had significant pre-existing support. For example, Trump endorsed right-wing candidate Nasri "Tito" Asfour in Honduras last November, even threatening to cut ties if he wasn't elected. Asfour won by a narrow margin of just 1%.
Trump also backed populist candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, calling his victory "very important" for bilateral relations. He also declared "full and absolute support" for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who subsequently won her election. Conversely, Trump's endorsement of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán did not prevent his "crushing defeat" in the April elections, despite Trump conditioning economic aid on Orbán's victory.
Before entering the White House, Trump supported former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, calling him "the Trump of the Tropics," but Bolsonaro lost to left-wing candidate Lula da Silva. Trump told Channel 12 that his support for Netanyahu was always intended due to their "good relationship" and plans for future cooperation.
Yossi Verter, a political analyst for Haaretz, noted that all polls predict a significant loss for Netanyahu's Likud party, potentially dropping from 32 seats to 18-21. He also stated that the current coalition parties are expected to fall from 68 seats to 52.
Verter described Trump's endorsement as the start of a "campaign for Bibi" culminating on election day, asserting that "when Trump bets, he bets his entire capital." He found Trump's timing surprising given Netanyahu's unpopularity among both Democratic and Republican voters in the U.S., especially with upcoming midterm elections where the Republican party anticipates losses. Verter believes Trump's support will have little impact on Israeli voters, citing Trump's past actions, including insulting Netanyahu in a call with the Qatari prime minister regarding the Gaza war and hostage situation. Verter added that Trump is unfamiliar with Netanyahu's opponents and their potential actions toward him during the next two years, a period when Trump might be weakened internationally.
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