Iran's Strait of Hormuz Leverage Weakened by Resilient Oil Exports

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surpassed pre-war levels, undermining Iran's attempts to control the global energy market, despite an increase in attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. International media reports indicate that the seven-day average for crude oil exports reached 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1, with daily volumes peaking at 22.5 million barrels per day between September 27 and 29. These figures are higher than the average of 18 million barrels per day seen between March 2025 and February 2026, prior to the conflict with Iran. The recovery in exports occurred concurrently with at least seven reported attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Ruth Pins Feldman, a Senior Research Fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security, the U.S. Central Command's (CENTCOM) success in maintaining oil flow through Hormuz relies on a combination of military tools, including maritime defense, intelligence, surveillance, and mine-clearing operations. By clearing mines and securing sea lanes, U.S. forces have aided in restoring commercial shipping and ensuring oil flow from the Gulf despite Iranian threats. Feldman stated that the export data from October 1, which exceeded pre-war levels, demonstrates a significant strategic shift, weakening Iran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as an economic weapon.

Feldman further explained that the economic impact extends beyond the Gulf. By keeping exports flowing from the Gulf while maintaining pressure on Iranian oil exports, Washington is diminishing Tehran's economic leverage, helping to stabilize global oil supplies and prices, including at the pump in the U.S. This reduces the risk of energy price shocks creating domestic political pressure on the administration. She outlined three potential paths forward for Washington: continued economic and military pressure, negotiation from a position of strength, or further weakening the regime in hopes of internal collapse.

For Israel, this development translates to greater strategic flexibility. With less risk of a U.S. oil-driven economic counter-reaction, Washington may have more room to maintain military pressure on Iran, while Israel gains more operational freedom against Iranian threats. Feldman suggested this success could also create conditions for further actions against the Houthis in Yemen and other Iran-backed proxies by reducing Tehran's economic leverage to deter U.S. activity. The primary challenge, she noted, is sustaining these gains and preventing Iran from rebuilding its capacity to disrupt global energy flow.

Jemima Kelly, a Senior Research Analyst at United Against Nuclear Iran, acknowledged the positive sign of export recovery but warned of significant ongoing risks. She noted that most laden oil tankers transit the Strait with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals turned off, often facilitated by U.S. forces. Kelly emphasized that the security situation has worsened despite increased traffic, with recent Iranian attacks specifically targeting tankers. She also clarified that the increased export numbers do not include Iranian crude oil, which has been largely unable to leave the Gulf of Oman due to U.S. sanctions since July 14, with only minor exceptions for gas hydrocarbon shipments.