US May Strike Dangerous Iran Deal, Israeli Ex-Intel Chief Warns

The United States may be nearing a deal with Iran that could preserve a significant security threat to Israel, according to a former Israeli intelligence official. Retired brigadier general Hanan Gefen, who previously commanded Unit 8200 of IDF Military Intelligence, expressed concerns that closed-door negotiations between the U.S. and Iran could lead to an agreement that limits Tehran's nuclear program but allows it to maintain and develop its ballistic missile arsenal. Gefen warned in an interview with "Midday Agenda" that Washington might be negotiating without fully informing Israel and other regional allies.

While Gefen does not see an immediate Iranian attack on Israel as the most likely scenario, he noted that Tehran could still increase pressure through its proxies. Potential tools include continued threats from the Houthis against Saudi Arabia, arms shipments to Hezbollah, and the activation of pro-Iranian groups in Iraq. The primary concern, however, remains the diplomatic contacts between the U.S. and Iran, the details of which are unknown to Israel.

Gefen suggested that the U.S. might consider a limited military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities, potentially lasting only a few days, before returning to diplomatic solutions. He speculated about a three-day series of strikes, though this remains unconfirmed. Such a limited military action could embolden Iran to maintain a hardline negotiating stance if it believes the U.S. is not committed to a prolonged campaign.

The possibility of Iran's ballistic missile program being excluded from any future agreement is particularly alarming, as it would allow Tehran to continue advancing its missile capabilities. Ballistic missiles pose a serious threat to Israel's security, enabling long-range strikes and endangering critical infrastructure. Gefen also highlighted Iran's strategy of rebuilding regional influence through financial and military support for allied groups in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank, a tactic reminiscent of the late Qassem Soleimani's approach.

These tensions also affect Gulf states, with Houthi threats posing risks to Saudi Arabia's infrastructure. Gefen indicated that Riyadh is interested in enhancing security cooperation, potentially with Turkey and Egypt. The potential preservation of Iran's ballistic missile program could significantly alter the regional balance of power, impacting not only Israel but also Arab nations within range of Iranian missiles.