Turkey-Azerbaijan Tensions Escalate Amid Secret Activity Allegations

A significant diplomatic crisis has erupted between Turkey and Azerbaijan, long-standing allies often described by the slogan "one nation, two states." The dispute, initially sparked by Azerbaijan's new education policy restricting hijab-wearing in state schools, has escalated into accusations of Turkish interference in Azerbaijani internal affairs.

Recently, Azerbaijani media, reportedly close to President Ilham Aliyev's administration, leveled serious accusations against Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. These reports alleged Fidan was involved in covert operations in Baku, specifically meeting with members of the Youth Development Fund (GYF), an organization operating in Azerbaijan, and purportedly relaying instructions. The reports, which lacked concrete evidence, suggested that the GYF and other Turkish organizations are used by Turkish intelligence for information gathering, influence peddling, and expanding Ankara's political sway.

The Turkish Embassy in Baku vehemently denied these allegations, calling them baseless slander intended to damage bilateral relations. While acknowledging Fidan met with various individuals, including members of a legally registered organization, the embassy dismissed claims of a "secret" meeting or the transfer of directives. They also refuted the existence of a purported letter from Fidan to the Turkish parliament in 2025, labeling the accusations of intelligence activities and coup plotting as lies designed to incite public anger against Turkey.

The crisis has been further complicated by recent events, including Israeli President Isaac Herzog's visit to Baku. Reports suggested Azerbaijan did not inform Ankara of Herzog's flight passing through Turkish airspace, a point of contention given Turkey's restrictions on official Israeli flights. This incident highlighted the divergent approaches of Turkey and Azerbaijan towards Israel, with Ankara maintaining a hostile stance amid the Gaza war while Baku continues close security and energy ties with Jerusalem.

Experts suggest that while Ankara and Baku will likely overcome this current crisis, it exposes underlying sensitivities. Dr. Galiya Lindenshtraus of Tel Aviv University's INSS noted that Turkey's shift away from secularism under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan presents challenges for Azerbaijan, which emphasizes its secular principles. The hijab issue, a point of contention in Turkey's past, is viewed by Baku as potential external meddling. Furthermore, Azerbaijan's strong ties with Israel are seen as crucial for maintaining its independence and leverage against Ankara.

Despite the harsh exchange of accusations, no official measures have been taken to harm diplomatic relations or strategic cooperation. In late September, the two nations signed defense agreements worth over half a billion dollars. A further test of their relationship is expected on October 30th when President Aliyev is scheduled to visit Ankara for a summit of the Organization of Turkic States.