Israeli Political Analyst Explains Election Stalemate Scenarios

Political analyst Dr. Salim Breik stated that Avigdor Lieberman's statements and electoral moves are tied to his party's calculations and the competition for leadership of the bloc opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Breik noted that disagreements between Lieberman, Gadi Eisenkot, and Naftali Bennett could impact the formation of the next government. Speaking on Radio al-Shams, Breik explained that Lieberman aims to retain right-wing votes wary of a government relying on Arab parties, a stance that serves his campaign even if it strains relations with Eisenkot.

Eisenkot, Breik added, fears Lieberman and Bennett might impose conditions or obstruct his path to the premiership post-election, prompting him to seek a larger party than his rivals within the same bloc. Breik anticipates the upcoming elections will conclude without a stable government, potentially leading to new elections. He suggested the opposition bloc's goal might be to diminish Netanyahu's influence, even without forming an immediate alternative government.

Breik also pointed to potential moves within the Knesset, such as changing its leadership or passing laws, including one to prevent Netanyahu from running for prime minister. However, he cautioned that such a move could spark internal conflict within the Likud party, questioning its members' willingness to defect if Netanyahu's leadership is untenable. Breik estimated Lieberman would need at least seven Likud members to defect to dismantle the party, expressing doubt about his ability to orchestrate such a split.

Another scenario discussed involves Eisenkot securing a significant number of seats, followed by a bloc including Lieberman, Bennett, and Yair Lapid, along with other parties, demanding their candidate lead the government. Breik speculated Lieberman might leverage this to propose himself or Bennett for prime minister, though he doubted some politicians' willingness to join such a coalition.

Breik also addressed the campaign targeting Eisenkot's Oriental heritage, calling it a deep-seated effort to influence voters and his chances of leading the government. He referenced past political debates from the 1990s regarding Oriental politicians' suitability for the premiership, noting that such campaigns did not necessarily shift Oriental votes away from the Likud. Breik believes the rhetoric linking Oriental heritage to state management capabilities persists, and he has not yet observed a clear shift in Oriental voters towards Eisenkot.

Furthermore, Breik criticized the Likud's use of a recording of a Druze religious figure's thank-you speech, suggesting it was misleadingly presented as electoral support. He characterized this as a manipulative tactic by the Likud to exploit available resources under pressure, linking it to the campaign against Eisenkot's heritage to undermine his leadership potential and help Netanyahu remain in power if the opposition fails to form an alternative government. The ultimate outcomes, Breik concluded, depend on election results, party balances in the Knesset, and the ability of different blocs to overcome differences and agree on a prime ministerial candidate.