Iran Expert Warns of Escalation Risk Post-US Midterms
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
An Israeli expert on Iran, Dani Sitrinovich, warned that a dangerous period for conflict with Iran could emerge after the US midterm elections. Iran is increasing its military readiness, anticipating potential escalation. Sitrinovich believes the risk of military action will significantly rise in the two months following the US midterms. He also noted that while US economic pressure is high, it may not lead to the regime's collapse and could result in a prolonged Iranian escalation.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Iran researcher Dani Sitrinovich warns of a dangerous escalation window after US midterm elections.
- Iran is increasing military readiness and missile exercises, anticipating potential conflict.
- The period between the US midterms and the new Congress's swearing-in is seen as high-risk.
- US strikes might expand to include Iranian infrastructure, not just nuclear sites.
- Economic pressure on Iran is significant but unlikely to cause immediate regime collapse.
- Sitrinovich believes a prolonged Iranian escalation is possible despite US pressure.
Dani Sitrinovich, an Iran researcher and fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), has warned that a dangerous window for renewed conflict with Iran could open after the US midterm elections. He stated that Iran is already increasing its military readiness and is on high alert, but the likelihood of significant escalation before the elections is relatively low.
Sitrinovich explained that while Iran is increasing its activities, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz to raise oil prices, the upcoming US midterm elections are the primary factor influencing Tehran's decision-making. He believes Iran estimates that President Trump will not react before the elections, leading them to increase pressure in the Strait. Iran is also intensifying exercises with ground-to-ground missiles and maintaining a high state of alert, anticipating a potential escalation.
However, Sitrinovich's most significant warning concerns the period between the US midterms and the swearing-in of a new Congress. He estimates that the probability of military action during these two months will rise "very significantly." He also suggested that the US might consider a different approach to potential strikes, possibly targeting Iranian infrastructure in addition to nuclear sites, a strategy not employed in previous operations.
Despite the potential for expanded strikes, Sitrinovich expressed doubt that such actions would lead to the downfall of the Iranian regime. He anticipates a harsh Iranian response and believes that the limitations of air power alone in toppling the regime have been demonstrated. He also noted that while US economic pressure is significantly impacting Iran, it does not guarantee a change in the regime's behavior, as Tehran appears prepared to withstand the pressure and may opt for further escalation.
Sitrinovich concluded that the immediate prospect of renewed conflict highlights the limitations of previous military strategies. He cautioned that even with increased economic pressure, the regime is unlikely to collapse in the short term, potentially leading to an Iranian escalation that could last for several months or longer.
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