Israel Weighs Potential Costs of Attacking Iran Amid Regional Tensions

Israel has been living in a state of "near war" with Iran, with the state of emergency extended until after the upcoming elections. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of enemies who might attack Israel during this sensitive period, while the Chief of Staff pledged to maintain vigilance. Meanwhile, CNN reported that the U.S. military has developed new attack plans against Iran, potentially including the use of the "mother of all bombs" against Iranian nuclear and energy facilities. This weapon, the GBU-43/B, is the largest non-nuclear bomb in the U.S. arsenal, though sources close to CNN expressed doubts about its effectiveness against Iran's underground nuclear sites.

The article questions the consideration of such options given the bomb's limitations and explores potential Iranian responses, including attacks on neighboring Gulf states' water and energy infrastructure, or launching heavy missile barrages at Israel and Arab nations. It also notes the lack of discussion in Israeli media regarding these "grim" scenarios, suggesting a conditioned reflex to view attacking Iran as always beneficial, despite past military failures. The piece highlights U.S. President Donald Trump's own expressed uncertainty about the wisdom of eliminating Iran's leader, Ali Khamenei, questioning why Israeli citizens remain silent.

Separately, the article touches on the ongoing conflict in Yemen, where Houthi drone and missile attacks have led foreign airlines to cancel flights to Saudi Arabia following a deadly attack on Riyadh airport. Pro-Saudi Yemeni forces have made some progress in the Bab al-Mandab strait, but the war is expected to continue, posing an ongoing threat to Saudi Arabia. The article also details the Turkish government's crackdown on the opposition television channel Halk TV in Istanbul, with police raiding its offices and arresting staff, a move critics liken to tactics used by autocratic regimes to suppress dissent.

Finally, the digest revisits the "Operation Kibya" (Operation Shoshana) on October 14-15, 1953. This retaliatory strike by Israeli forces, led by Ariel Sharon, targeted the Palestinian village of Kibya in response to a terror attack that killed an Israeli mother and her children. While the stated goal was deterrence, the operation resulted in the deaths of 69 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and drew severe international condemnation, leading to a temporary suspension of U.S. economic aid to Israel. Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion falsely claimed angry civilians, not the IDF, carried out the attack. The incident prompted a shift in Israel's retaliation policy towards military targets and the integration of Unit 101 into the Paratroopers Brigade.