Saudi Arabia's Military Weakness Creates Opportunity for Israel
Translated & summarized from Walla by baba
Recent Houthi attacks on Riyadh have exposed Saudi Arabia's military and economic weaknesses, prompting a potential shift in its budget priorities and impacting regional alliances. The attacks have delayed the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) trade route, potentially benefiting China's Belt and Road Initiative. Turkey is promoting an alternative route, but it faces significant risks. The article suggests Israel should offer assistance to Saudi Arabia in exchange for security and economic commitments, including joining the Abraham Accords and confirming Haifa as the IMEC's port.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Houthi attacks on Riyadh exposed Saudi Arabia's military weakness, impacting its economy and regional standing.
- Saudi Arabia's financial strain delays the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) trade route.
- Turkey is promoting an alternative trade route that bypasses Saudi Arabia and Israel but faces significant risks.
- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's leadership is under scrutiny due to military failures and economic challenges.
- Israel is urged to leverage Saudi Arabia's difficulties for security and economic commitments, including joining the Abraham Accords.
Recent Houthi attacks on Riyadh's international airport, which caused casualties and damage, have exposed Saudi Arabia's military vulnerabilities and threatened its future economic stability. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported a 3.3% contraction in Saudi GDP this year, leading to international companies canceling flights to the capital. These challenges necessitate significant investment in defense and a potential shift in budgetary priorities, impacting Saudi Arabia's regional standing and its ability to fund the war against Iran-backed Houthis.
The kingdom faces the dual challenge of acquiring advanced weaponry and developing a sufficient ground force to achieve its objectives in Yemen. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MBS) leadership is under scrutiny as the country grapples with these issues, potentially forcing a reevaluation of investment strategies away from long-term economic projects towards immediate military needs.
These developments have immediate implications for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a trade route initiative connecting India to Europe via rail through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Haifa, Israel. Saudi Arabia's financial strain, exacerbated by the need to fund the IMEC's extensive rail infrastructure, conflicts with MBS's "Vision 2030" development budget cuts. This delay benefits China's Belt and Road Initiative, as the US-led IMEC faces setbacks due to regional conflicts.
Meanwhile, Turkey is promoting an alternative "Dry Canal" route through Iraq and its own territory, bypassing Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, this route faces significant risks due to instability in Iraq, Iranian influence, and ongoing conflicts, making it less attractive to investors. The article suggests that Israel, a technological powerhouse, should leverage Saudi Arabia's difficulties by offering assistance in exchange for concrete commitments, including joining the Abraham Accords and confirming Haifa as the IMEC's western terminus.
The article also highlights the challenges facing MBS's ambitious NEOM project, a futuristic city intended to diversify the Saudi economy. Budgetary deficits and regional conflicts have led to a scaling back of its components. The author posits that MBS's political future is uncertain, and he must choose between an Israeli-American partnership or face potential ouster, especially given the kingdom's economic struggles and military failures. Israel's own strong economic performance is presented as a contrast to Saudi Arabia's reliance on oil and unfulfilled visions.
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