Saudi Arabia's Struggles Offer Lessons for Israel

Saudi Arabia is currently facing a barrage of missile and drone attacks from Yemen, targeting vital transportation and energy hubs, as well as airports. These attacks, which have led to the temporary closure of Riyadh's airport and flight suspensions by numerous airlines, are described as mirroring the Iranian strategy previously aimed at Israel. The Houthi rebels have declared a naval blockade, now complemented by an aerial one, while Iran threatens invasion. Saudi Arabia appears overwhelmed, unable to defend itself or its borders, with international powers offering only verbal support.

In contrast, Israel, despite suffering a significant initial shock on October 7th, managed to turn the tide against Iran's plans. The article highlights Israel's long-standing strategy of "the war between wars" (Mabam), involving intelligence gathering, covert operations, and strikes against Iranian and proxy targets, particularly in Syria. These actions, though sometimes criticized, prevented Iran from consolidating its regional presence and developing advanced weaponry that could have been used against Israel during the recent conflict. For instance, Israeli strikes in Syria disrupted Iran's efforts to establish advanced air defense systems and recruit fighters for a Hezbollah-style militia.

The article contrasts Saudi Arabia's current predicament with Israel's experience, emphasizing that while Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in its military, its strategic weaknesses and poorly constructed combat arrays leave it vulnerable, even to the Houthis. Unlike Israel, which has developed robust intelligence and offensive capabilities, Saudi Arabia relies heavily on imported technology and lacks independent military production. Its defense strategy is also hampered by internal structural limitations designed to prevent the military from posing a threat to the royal family.

Saudi Arabia's foreign policy has shifted towards pragmatic dialogue and regional cooperation, prioritizing economic stability under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030. This approach led them to maintain communication with Iran and attempt mediation, even while under attack, and to de-prioritize normalization with Israel in favor of Palestinian statehood. However, this focus on diplomacy and economic reliance has left its core revenue sources, like oil infrastructure, vulnerable to Houthi attacks.

The piece concludes by noting that while comparisons between Israel and Saudi Arabia have limitations, Israel's resilience stems from public spirit, creativity, and its strong alliance with the United States. It stresses the need for Israel to maintain this strategic partnership and a clear-eyed view of its adversaries, advocating for proactive measures to disrupt enemy plans rather than relying on containment. The article also warns that the Houthi threat, currently focused on Saudi Arabia, could eventually extend to Israel, necessitating creative offensive solutions.