US-Iran Tensions Tied to Trump, Netanyahu Election Calculations
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Escalating US-Iran tensions are intertwined with the electoral calculations of President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both facing upcoming elections. Professor Ayman Yousef suggests that while war is a possibility, increased pressure for negotiations is also likely. Iran is employing psychological warfare and threatening key shipping lanes, while the Houthis' actions in Yemen may be testing regional alliances. Yousef believes electoral gains are a primary driver for the current escalation.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- US-Iran tensions are linked to electoral calculations of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
- Professor Ayman Yousef sees potential for war or increased pressure on Iran.
- Iran is using psychological warfare and threatening global shipping routes.
- Netanyahu may benefit from conflict by boosting popularity or delaying elections.
- Trump might use threats to improve his negotiating position or gain public support.
- Houthi actions in Yemen could be testing regional alliances, with Iranian involvement.
Amid escalating threats between the United States and Iran, and reports of increasing US military buildup in the Middle East, questions arise about a potential new war. These tensions precede Israel's Knesset elections by less than two weeks, with polls indicating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and right-wing parties may struggle to form a government. With US midterm elections also approaching in under 40 days, political and electoral calculations for both Netanyahu and President Donald Trump are central to the situation, raising concerns about exploiting tensions for domestic gain.
Dr. Ayman Yousef, a professor of conflict resolution and international relations, discussed potential scenarios. He suggested a return to war is possible, potentially benefiting Netanyahu by boosting his popularity or even delaying the elections. Trump, meanwhile, might use threats to strengthen his negotiating position with Iran or gain public support ahead of US elections. A second scenario involves increased pressure on Iran to return to negotiations, with Qatari, Omani, and Pakistani mediation efforts ongoing.
Iran, in response, has shown readiness for confrontation, with actions like attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and support for the Houthis in Yemen. Yousef views this as part of psychological and media warfare, aimed at signaling preparedness to domestic and international audiences, including regional powers. Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could escalate the conflict to a global economic and security level.
Yousef leans towards the view that the current escalation is largely linked to electoral goals for both Trump and Netanyahu. He noted that the US has tried various approaches with Iran without success, leaving open the possibility of more destructive actions, though he considers this a highly dangerous and difficult-to-imagine scenario.
Regarding the Yemeni front, Yousef believes Iran plays a role in the Houthi actions, but the Houthis also pursue their own interests. He sees the Houthi moves as a potential test of the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish alliance, which Iran may not favor. These actions could also be an attempt to create conflict with Saudi Arabia and test the resolve of Pakistan and Turkey, who have largely maintained a neutral stance.
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