Lebanese Shiite Poll Shows Majority Support for Israel Deal, State Control of Hezbollah Arms

A September poll of 800 Lebanese Shiites, conducted by Statistics Lebanon and published in mid-October, revealed significant shifts in attitudes within the community that forms Hezbollah's primary social base. A majority, 63.3%, expressed support for an agreement with Israel, achievable through direct talks, third-party mediation, or a comprehensive regional accord. Additionally, 66.4% favored placing Hezbollah's weapons under the control of the Lebanese state, contrasting with 29.6% who preferred the status quo.

The survey also highlighted dissatisfaction with Hezbollah's leadership regarding the ongoing conflict. Approximately 42.1% of respondents felt disappointed, angry, or concerned about the leadership's handling of the war and its consequences. A combined 67.4% believed Hezbollah had not fully achieved its objectives or had achieved none at all, citing the war's high cost. Despite these criticisms, trust in the party remains substantial, with 37.1% expressing high confidence and 22.4% partial confidence, while 38.5% indicated varying degrees of distrust.

Regarding security, 51.1% of participants identified the Lebanese army as the most capable entity for ensuring long-term security, compared to 16.5% who favored Hezbollah. Furthermore, 71.1% asserted that decisions regarding war and peace should exclusively rest with the Lebanese state, with only 12% supporting Hezbollah's independent decision-making power on such matters. These findings suggest a potential increase in support for state institutions managing security affairs within the Shiite community, a sensitive issue given Hezbollah's arsenal.

The poll's results emerge amidst a growing Lebanese debate on Hezbollah's future arms, the state's security role, and the costs of confronting Israel. Analysts caution that supporting a political or security agreement with Israel is distinct from full normalization, and that support for state control over weapons does not specify the preferred implementation mechanism. The poll is considered an indicator of specific attitudes at a given time, not definitive proof of a comprehensive transformation within the Lebanese Shiite community.