Israeli Elections Hinged on Voter Turnout and Threshold Parties, Not Bloc Shifts

Israeli elections are not typically decided by vote transfers between blocs, especially in a polarized country where most voters remain loyal. Instead, outcomes are often determined by voter turnout, with supporters of a particular bloc staying home, or by parties failing to cross the electoral threshold, wasting tens of thousands of votes. The 2022 elections, for instance, ended in a near tie and were ultimately decided by parties that did not pass the threshold.

As voters become more entrenched, analyzing voting patterns in different sectors becomes crucial for determining who will form the next government. The electoral threshold in Israel is 3.25%, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. In the last election, this threshold represented about 155,000 votes. Projections for the upcoming election suggest this number could range from 154,000 to 166,000 votes, depending on turnout.

Professor Ofer Kenig of the Israel Democracy Institute noted that the previous election saw a record 8.8% of votes wasted, totaling 417,000. In 2022, both the Netanyahu bloc and the change bloc, along with Arab parties, garnered around 2.3 million votes each. A significant feature of the 2022 election was that the majority of wasted votes came from the left, with Meretz losing 151,000 votes and Balad 139,000, giving the Netanyahu bloc an eight-seat advantage.

Several parties are currently at risk of wasting votes, including Ofer Vinter's Am Israel, HaMiluimnikim, Religious Zionism, and Blue and White. Modern Orthodox parties, Avi Maoz's Noam, and Rabbi Yoram Michael Aberjel's Achie movement are also expected to waste a substantial number of votes. Analyst Shmuel Rosner calculated that up to 735,000 votes could be lost in the upcoming election, though the actual number may be lower. Many of these "swing" parties are competing for the same disillusioned voters from the Netanyahu bloc, leading to a scarcity of votes for all.

Voter turnout remains a significant unknown. Lower turnout in economically and geographically weaker sectors, a global trend mirrored in Israel (with the exception of the Haredi sector), can heavily influence results. Predicting turnout is difficult as people are reluctant to admit they might not vote. The Likud's past claims of 300,000 non-voting supporters were often inaccurate, as those votes typically went to other right-wing parties rather than staying home. Netanyahu's strategy to mobilize voters has sometimes involved legitimizing more extreme factions like Otzma Yehudit, whose rhetoric can draw in voters who might otherwise not support the Likud.

This election cycle, however, faces a broader issue of disillusioned voters across blocs. The Haredi community, for example, is reportedly disappointed with Haredi parties for not passing an exemption law for yeshiva students. This could lead to protest votes for smaller parties like the Modern Orthodox party, even if they are unlikely to pass the threshold. Parties like Likud and Shas anticipate significant efforts to mobilize voters on election day, but disillusioned electorates may also mean a shortage of volunteers for campaign efforts. Further complicating matters, a High Court of Justice ruling prohibits poll observers from reporting who has voted, hindering election day mobilization efforts.