Israeli Politics Defined by Shifting Blocs and Campaign Deception

Israeli political campaigns are increasingly focused on maintaining existing voter bases rather than attracting new ones, with strategies often designed to avoid alienating core supporters. Despite extensive media coverage of campaign tactics, the fundamental political blocs of left and right remain largely unchanged, as evidenced by consistent election results over recent years. This phenomenon raises questions about the intended audience of campaign messages and the actual impact of political strategies on voter behavior.

Recent polls and election outcomes demonstrate that voters largely remain within their established blocs, with significant shifts occurring only within these blocs, often between larger parties. For instance, the 20 mandates on the left have shifted between parties like Yesh Atid and National Unity, while on the right, voters may move between Likud and Religious Zionism. The article highlights the case of Ofer Winter, whose poll numbers have fluctuated dramatically, suggesting that his support base is within the right-wing bloc, with voters choosing between him, Ben-Gvir, or Likud.

The political discourse is currently dominated by the issue of conscription, with parties on both the right and left using it to differentiate themselves. However, the article argues that these positions are often contradictory. For example, both Ben-Gvir and Lieberman use the issue to distance themselves from the ultra-Orthodox parties, despite their differing bloc affiliations. The article criticizes the left's willingness to partner with Arab parties, which it claims do not recognize the state and do not serve in the IDF, while simultaneously criticizing the ultra-Orthodox for not enlisting. This creates a paradox where parties advocating for conscription from the ultra-Orthodox are also willing to align with non-conscripting Arab parties.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is seen as understanding this dynamic, having previously created the bloc system to maintain his power. Now, he may seek to dismantle it. The article suggests that Netanyahu's post-election plans might involve forming a government without the ultra-Orthodox parties, focusing instead on a broad national unity government. The author warns against being misled by Netanyahu's political maneuvering and the current focus on the perceived hypocrisy of the left, urging a focus on what is truly important.

Furthermore, the article discusses the political controversy surrounding the commemoration of the October 7th massacre. While the Knesset officially designated a Hebrew date (24th of Tishrei) for national remembrance, many events, including those attended by politicians and widely covered by media, took place on the Gregorian date of October 7th. This divergence is presented as evidence of a broader national distrust in state institutions and a disconnect from Jewish tradition, with public discourse prioritizing the foreign date over the legally mandated one.