Ultra-Orthodox Youth Disillusioned, Threaten Major Voting Shift
Translated & summarized from Kikar HaShabbat by baba
A Super Data Institute poll shows a significant decline in voter turnout intention among young ultra-Orthodox Israelis, with only 69% of those under 30 certain they will vote. Traditional parties Shas and United Torah Judaism have seen their support among this demographic drop sharply. The 'Achie' movement has emerged as a potential "dark horse" candidate, gaining considerable traction. Experts warn that the current campaigns are ineffective and the situation is dire for established parties.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Voter turnout intention among young ultra-Orthodox Israelis has dropped to 69%, a significant decline from historical highs.
- Support for Shas among voters under 30 has fallen to 13%, and for United Torah Judaism to 41%.
- The 'Achie' movement has surged to 9% overall support and 12% among young ultra-Orthodox voters.
- 62% of ultra-Orthodox voters believe political operatives unduly influence senior rabbis.
- Young ultra-Orthodox voters are more conservative on conscription and women's political involvement than older generations.
A new poll reveals an unprecedented shake-up within the ultra-Orthodox community, particularly among its youth, ahead of upcoming elections. Historically, the sector has seen voter turnout between 80% and 88%. However, a recent survey by the Super Data Institute indicates a dramatic decline, with only 75% of the overall ultra-Orthodox public and 69% of those under 30 expressing certainty they will vote.
This apathy stems from a deep rift, with 36% of young voters feeling unrepresented by traditional ultra-Orthodox parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism. Simultaneously, 33% are unwilling to vote for other parties against the guidance of rabbinical leaders, leading many to consider abstaining altogether. Support for Shas has plummeted from 33-36% to 13% among voters under 30, while United Torah Judaism has fallen from 50% to 41%.
A significant portion of the ultra-Orthodox public, 62%, believes political operatives unduly influence senior rabbis, a sentiment rising to 70% among Hasidic voters. This perception challenges the traditional "faith in the wise" voting bloc.
The "dark horse" of the election appears to be the 'Achie' movement, representing students of Rabbi Aberjel. The party has surged to 9% support among all ultra-Orthodox voters and 12% among the youth. In internal polls among alternative parties, 'Achie' garners 38% compared to 45% for Moti Lightner.
Contrary to assumptions, young ultra-Orthodox voters are more conservative than their elders on issues like the conscription of yeshiva students not actively studying, with only 36% supporting it. They also show less support for women's participation in politics. "If I were a strategic advisor for Shas or Degel HaTorah, I wouldn't sleep," stated Avi Weidman, chairman of Super Data. "We are in the final stretch, the situation is not good, and the campaigns are not working."
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