Ultra-Orthodox Voters Consolidating Ahead of Election, Poll Shows

Ultra-Orthodox voters are consolidating their choices as the election approaches, according to a new poll by the research firm Ascarya, which specializes in this demographic. The percentage of undecided voters in the sector has significantly decreased in recent weeks, falling from approximately 15% in early September to about 10% by the end of the month. Despite this decision-making, the distribution of votes among those who have already decided remains largely unchanged, with discrepancies within the margin of error. The United Torah Judaism party maintains its leading position with about 60% of decided voters, while the Shas party holds steady at 26% to 28%.

Among the new parties attempting to challenge the established ultra-Orthodox political landscape, only one, the 'Hachareidi' party led by Motty Lightner, has shown some presence. Lightner's party is the only new list to surpass the 1% support threshold within the sector, achieving 2.6% in phone polls and 3.0% among decided voters, with internet polls showing between 5% and 7.5% support. Other new lists, including 'Ha'Kahal', 'Achi', 'Tzeva Shahor', and 'Noam', have failed to gain even 1% in any poll.

Dudi Dror, CEO of Ascarya, commented on the findings, noting that a month prior, the sector was characterized by hesitation with twice the number of undecided voters compared to 2022. He observed that decisions are now being made, with undecided voters decreasing and those who decide aligning with the established parties without significant migration. Dror tempered expectations for the new parties, stating that the data does not indicate they will dismantle the existing ultra-Orthodox political bloc, and even Lightner's party, the sole new list exceeding 1%, is still far from the electoral threshold.