Lieberman's Claim on Voter Turnout Inaccurate
Translated & summarized from Globes by baba
Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of Yisrael Beiteinu, claimed Haredi voter turnout is 120% and in Gush Dan/Sharon is 60%. An investigation found national turnout was 70.63%. Turnout in four Haredi cities was 79%, not 120%, and Gush Dan/Sharon turnout was 63.9%. Research suggests Haredi turnout is stable around 79%, and adjusted figures for Tel Aviv-Yafo show higher participation than official numbers.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Avigdor Lieberman's claim of 120% voter turnout in Haredi cities was found to be inaccurate.
- Turnout in four Haredi cities was 79%, significantly lower than Lieberman's claim.
- The Gush Dan and Sharon regions had a combined voter turnout of 63.9%.
- National voter turnout in the last election was 70.63%.
- Research indicates stable Haredi voter turnout around 79% in recent years.
Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, claimed that voter turnout in Haredi cities reaches 120% while in the Gush Dan and Sharon regions it is around 60%. He also stated that the national turnout in the last election was below 71%. An examination found that the national turnout was indeed 70.63%, confirming Lieberman's figure on this point. However, the turnout in four predominantly Haredi cities, Bnei Brak, Modi'in Illit, Beitar Illit, and Elad, was 79%. While this is higher than the national average, it falls significantly short of 100% or 120%. Furthermore, many Haredim reside in mixed cities, making this figure partial. Research by Dr. Gilad Malach for the Israel Democracy Institute indicates that turnout in explicitly Haredi polling stations between 2013 and 2022 remained stable at around 79%, even when accounting for absentee ballots.
Lieberman's party has previously linked high Haredi turnout figures to suspicions of irregularities, but available data does not support the claim of "120% turnout." The figures suggest a relatively high turnout in Haredi population centers, a known phenomenon not necessarily indicative of impossible percentages or fraud. In contrast, the Gush Dan and Sharon regions, defined to include major cities in the Tel Aviv district (excluding Bnei Brak) and towns north of Tel Aviv in the Central district, saw a combined turnout of 63.9%, aligning with Lieberman's estimate and falling below the national average.
However, the picture is nuanced. In Ramat Hasharon and Hod Hasharon, cities where Yesh Atid was the leading party, turnout was 71% and 74% respectively. A study by the Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality's Center for Economic and Social Research suggests that official city-level turnout figures can be misleading, especially in cities with many registered voters who do not actually live there. When adjusted for actual residents, Tel Aviv-Yafo's turnout increases from 56.2% to 72.1%. The study also found that in Tel Aviv-Yafo, areas with high support for Yesh Atid tended to have higher turnout, while Jaffa and southern areas had lower turnout. In Bat Yam and Netanya, where turnout was below 60%, the Likud was the leading party, indicating that low turnout does not exclusively harm one political bloc. Lieberman's office did not provide a response.
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