Israel's West Bank Policies Pushing Towards De Facto One-State Reality, Experts Warn

Israeli policies in the West Bank are accelerating a slide towards a de facto one-state reality, potentially leading to severe international repercussions and internal societal strain, according to analyses by Israeli research institutions. These policies, driven by the current government, include expanding settlements, weakening the Palestinian Authority (PA), and increasing Israeli civilian control, all without a formal declaration of annexation.

Researchers from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) warn that if current trends continue, Israel and the West Bank could become a single entity, incorporating millions of Palestinians alongside Israel's Arab citizens. This "creeping annexation" is described as a "major shift" from managing the conflict to implementing a "decisive plan" that effectively applies Israeli sovereignty. Experts like Brigadier General (Res.) Odi Dekel and Noy Shalev from INSS, and Dr. Michael Milstein from Tel Aviv University, predict this could lead to violent clashes, damage Israel's international standing, and destabilize its society and economy.

The rise of "Jewish terrorism" is identified as a significant catalyst for potential escalation. INSS reports that extremist Israeli settler violence against Palestinians is increasing the motivation for attacks and could revive armed groups outside PA control. This, coupled with a potential halt in security cooperation between the PA and the IDF, could spill over into East Jerusalem. Data shows a nearly 50% increase in nationalist crimes by Israelis in the West Bank in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, with reports indicating such incidents are routine and often result in injuries, property destruction, and fatalities.

The Palestinian Authority is being systematically weakened, primarily through the withholding of tax revenues Israel collects on behalf of the PA. These transfers, crucial for the PA's functioning, have plummeted, leaving the authority with mounting debts and unable to pay its employees full salaries. Security officials have warned that this could lead to chaos and escalation, but the government's response has been to demand the PA cease funding terrorism, despite the PA having already stopped such payments.

Furthermore, the government's actions, including advancing settlement construction plans like E1 and approving numerous settlements and outposts, are seen as actively burying the idea of a Palestinian state. The potential collapse of the PA would force Israel to assume direct responsibility for the civilian management of Palestinian areas, imposing a significant economic burden and potentially leading to a "reversal of roles" where Palestinian security forces turn against the IDF.

Internationally, the report suggests Israel faces consequences such as the freezing of relations with some countries and sanctions, including import bans on settlement goods from the UK, France, and Canada. The EU has also imposed sanctions on settler leaders. The UAE has indicated that annexation would violate the Abraham Accords.