Netanyahu Concerned by Declining Support for Haredi Parties

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly concerned about a significant drop in support for the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, ahead of upcoming elections. These parties, which together secured 18 Knesset seats in the previous election, are currently polling between 14 and 15 seats. This decline is unexpected given the high natural growth rate within the Haredi community, which would typically suggest an increase in their electoral power.

Internal crises within both parties are cited as the primary reasons for the dip in polls, alongside a decreased willingness among Haredi voters to turn out to vote. United Torah Judaism is experiencing a paralysis in its election campaign headquarters due to a rift between two leading rabbis in its Lithuanian faction. There is currently no active campaign to mobilize voters, and it remains uncertain if the dispute will be resolved before the election. Senior figures within the party estimate that winning eight seats would be a "miracle," and they would not be surprised if the party drops to just six seats.

Shas faces a more complex situation, largely stemming from disagreements over the draft exemption law for yeshiva students. While United Torah Judaism maintains a unified stance on the issue, some Shas voters have family members serving in the IDF and do not fully support the party's position. Consequently, some Shas supporters have shifted their allegiance to parties like Yesh Atid or Otzma Yehudit, while others are reportedly choosing not to vote at all. Internal polls indicate a roughly 10% decrease in the willingness of Haredi voters to go to the polls.

Adding to Netanyahu's challenges, approximately three seats that previously voted for Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism are now reportedly leaning towards new parties led by Ofer Winter and Yaron Zehlikah. According to analyst Amit Segal, Netanyahu's goal is not only to bring these voters back to the bloc but also to prevent Winter and Zehlikah's parties from crossing the electoral threshold. However, failure in this endeavor could leave Netanyahu in a difficult political position.