Netanyahu Concerned by Declining Support for Ultra-Orthodox Parties

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly concerned about a significant drop in support for the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, which together secured 18 seats in the last election but are polling at 14-15 seats. This decline is attributed to internal party crises and decreased voter turnout motivation within the ultra-Orthodox community.

United Torah Judaism is experiencing a paralysis in its election campaign headquarters due to a rift between two leading Lithuanian rabbis. With no active campaign or voter mobilization efforts, senior party officials estimate that winning eight seats would be a "miracle," and they would not be surprised if the party drops to just six seats.

Shas faces a more complex situation, primarily due to internal disagreements over the draft exemption law. While United Torah Judaism maintains a unified stance, some Shas voters have family members serving in the IDF, leading to dissatisfaction with the party's position. Consequently, some Shas supporters are reportedly shifting to other parties like Yesh Atid or Otzma Yehudit, while others are considering not voting at all.

Internal polls indicate a roughly 10% decrease in the willingness of ultra-Orthodox voters to go to the polls. However, analyst Amit Segal noted that the situation could change before election day, and the final results for these parties are not yet certain.

Netanyahu also faces the challenge of approximately three seats that previously supported Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism, but are now reportedly leaning towards new parties led by Ofer Winter and Yaron Zehlikah. Segal suggests that Netanyahu's goal is not only to regain these voters but also to prevent Winter and Zehlikah's parties from crossing the electoral threshold, which could impact the distribution of nearly ten seats and potentially shift the balance of power between political blocs.