Netanyahu and Smotrich Forge Stronger Alliance, Marginalizing Ben-Gvir

The Likud party and the Religious Zionism party are strengthening their alliance ahead of the upcoming elections, launching a joint campaign to "save the right-wing bloc" with the goal of increasing their power. Personal relationships between party leaders Benjamin Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich have also deepened, particularly after National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's temporary withdrawal from the government following the hostage deal, while Smotrich remained loyal and paid the political price. This strengthened axis includes establishing a joint field headquarters, integrating hundreds of activists, mapping potential voter bases, and planning a coordinated election day schedule.

The joint field headquarters is led by Yisrael Gantz of the Likud and Omer Rachamim of Religious Zionism. They are analyzing past election results to identify untapped voting potential and are working to significantly boost turnout in those areas. Activists will conduct door-to-door outreach on election day to ensure all potential voters cast their ballots, with logistical support including transportation if necessary. Beyond ground operations, the parties have also signed an excess votes agreement for parliamentary cooperation.

Sources indicate that while Likud and Religious Zionism target different demographics with distinct messages, they unite behind the common goal of forming a large coalition and winning the election. This collaboration was evident at a recent large gathering of Religious Zionism, where Netanyahu and Smotrich appeared coordinated and close, a stark contrast to Ben-Gvir, who was not invited.

Sources within both Likud and Religious Zionism accuse Ben-Gvir of isolating himself and intentionally creating this rift. Likud believes that while Shas and Religious Zionism are engaged in coordinated bloc strategy, Ben-Gvir is focused on personal gain and his own campaign, aiming to grow at Likud's expense. They claim he is not cooperating on bloc-wide victory efforts, neglecting messages against the opposition, and instead highlighting internal bloc conflicts.

Likud claims they attempted to engage with Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir's party) regarding cooperation, but Ben-Gvir showed no willingness to participate, either in action or budget. Consequently, Likud believes Ben-Gvir has many wavering votes in current polls and intends to win them back. Tensions escalated further with a recent campaign statement from Otzma Yehudit suggesting that "if Ben-Gvir had been Defense Minister, October 7th would not have happened." This was perceived as provocative by his coalition partners, reinforcing the perception that Ben-Gvir is prioritizing his own advancement at their expense and further solidifying the Netanyahu-Smotrich axis.

Likud views Ben-Gvir as the sole contender for their voter base within the Netanyahu bloc, leading to a contest focused on appealing to undecided right-wing voters. While Ben-Gvir's office asserts unwavering support for Netanyahu, their focus appears to be on who will be the next Defense Minister, a position Ben-Gvir has publicly targeted. Netanyahu reportedly understands that to curb these ambitions, he must weaken Otzma Yehudit and reduce its projected mandate in the elections. A source from Religious Zionism criticized Ben-Gvir for focusing internal bloc energy on a contest between "Netanyahu or Ben-Gvir," rather than directing efforts outward, noting that Smotrich had sought broader bloc unity while Ben-Gvir and others opted to proceed independently, leading to the closer alliance with Likud.