Likud Allies with Smotrich, Leaving Ben-Gvir's Party Without a Deal

The Likud party has formed a surplus vote agreement with the Religious Zionism list led by Bezalel Smotrich, a move that surprised and disappointed Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose Jewish Power party was excluded. This agreement allows two lists to combine their vote counts for the distribution of remaining parliamentary seats after the initial count, giving them an advantage in securing these final mandates. The votes are not transferred between parties; they are treated as a single bloc only for this specific allocation.

Ben-Gvir's exclusion poses a challenge as most viable partnership options have already been claimed. In the opposition, four parties have formed two pairs: Naftali Bennett's "Yahad" with Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and Gadi Eisenkot's "Yahad" with Yair Golan's "Democrats."

Within the governing bloc, Likud's choice of Smotrich leaves Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power searching for a partner. Potential options include Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" or a union with Yoaz Hendel's "Reservists" and Yaron Zelicha's "Economists." However, a partnership with "Amcha Israel" carries risk: if Winter's party fails to cross the electoral threshold, the agreement offers no benefit to Jewish Power.

Likud cited political considerations for excluding Jewish Power, with a party source suggesting concerns that Ben-Gvir's party might not remain loyal to Likud after the election, noting statements from some Jewish Power candidates open to other alliances. Jewish Power, however, characterized the decision as an attempt by Likud to weaken their party and prevent Ben-Gvir from joining a future government.

These surplus vote agreements are particularly crucial in the upcoming election, where a small margin could determine the allocation of the final seats. Such agreements are only effective if both partner parties surpass the electoral threshold. With the election set for October 27, the landscape of surplus vote alliances is largely set, leaving Ben-Gvir as the most prominent right-wing figure still needing a partner. Failure to secure a deal, for instance with "Amcha Israel," could result in both parties forfeiting potentially valuable remaining votes. Parties can submit these agreements to the Central Elections Committee until October 16.