Likud and Religious Zionism Sign Surplus Vote Agreement, Leaving Ben-Gvir's Party Isolated

The Likud and the Religious Zionism party announced Tuesday they have signed a surplus vote agreement, a pact that could leave Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party facing the upcoming elections alone, or potentially in an agreement with Ofer Vinter's "Am Israel" party. Surplus vote agreements, which allow parties to pool excess votes to gain additional Knesset seats, can be signed up to 11 days before an election. However, if Vinter's party fails to pass the electoral threshold, any agreement with Ben-Gvir would be void. Vinter also reportedly received surplus vote proposals from the parties led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha, but has not responded.

Ben-Gvir's political dilemma intensifies as the Likud escalates its campaign against Vinter's party. The Likud is reportedly focusing significant resources on targeting "Am Israel" voters through paid social media campaigns featuring dozens of videos and past statements from the party's candidates, aiming to prevent them from passing the electoral threshold.

A senior Likud official suggested Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu does not trust Vinter, citing concerns that Vinter might not align solely with Netanyahu. The official pointed to statements from Vinter's party, including a candidate's call for a conscription law in any government and Vinter's openness to cooperating with Avigdor Lieberman, who himself has indicated potential collaboration with Vinter.

They cited Eli Goldschmidt, a Likud candidate and former Labor MK, as echoing these sentiments.

A surplus vote agreement is a pre-election pact between two Knesset lists. They agree to cooperate in distributing votes that fall short of a full mandate, ensuring these votes contribute to gaining an additional seat for one of the partner parties. This is achieved by calculating their combined votes as if they were a single list for the purpose of distributing the final seats, effectively giving them an advantage in the calculation for these marginal mandates.