Likud and Religious Zionism Sign Surplus Vote Agreement Ahead of Election

With 21 days remaining until the 26th Knesset elections, the Likud party and the Religious Zionism party have officially signed a surplus vote agreement, submitting it to the Central Elections Committee for approval. This agreement concludes weeks of speculation and internal pressure within Likud to abandon the deal with Bezalel Smotrich and instead align with Ofer Winter's 'Am Israel' party.

The move solidifies the alliance map within the right-wing bloc and could be crucial for securing the final Knesset seats. The signing put an end to intense internal disputes within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's circle, where significant pressure was exerted to drop Smotrich and pursue an alternative with Winter's party, a move that sparked deep strategic debate regarding vote distribution within the right-wing camp.

Initial understandings between Likud and Religious Zionism were reported in early September, but the formal signing was repeatedly delayed. Political circles speculated that Likud was intentionally keeping its options open, particularly due to the potential rise of Ofer Winter's 'Am Israel' party. Some within Likud had urged the party to sign with Winter, provided he passed the electoral threshold, and even suggested Religious Zionism merge with Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit to create two balanced surplus vote agreements.

Despite these internal debates, the decision was ultimately made to maintain the long-standing partnership with Smotrich. A surplus vote agreement is a key strategic tool in Israel's Bader-Ofer electoral system, allowing two lists that pass the 3.25% threshold to pool their excess votes for additional seats. In the 2022 elections, the Likud-Religious Zionism partnership yielded two extra seats for both parties. This time, the complexity is increased as Smotrich is running on a joint list with Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party, following earlier efforts by Netanyahu to reduce fragmentation on the right.

The official signing eliminates any scenario of Likud changing course at the last minute to align with Winter. With only weeks left until the election, this move cements the established alliance between Likud and Religious Zionism, providing Netanyahu's camp with a clear strategy for vote distribution within the bloc as the campaign enters its final stretch.