Likud and Religious Zionism Sign Surplus Vote Pact, Right-Wing Bloc Faces Uncertainty

The Likud and the Religious Zionism-Zehut parties announced Tuesday they have signed a surplus vote agreement ahead of the upcoming elections. This agreement comes about a month after the parties declared their intention to do so, but it leaves questions unanswered regarding surplus vote arrangements for the rest of the right-wing bloc.

For the Likud, the largest party in the bloc, navigating these agreements presented a complex political puzzle with several potential configurations affecting inter-party power dynamics. One possibility was an agreement with Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, which would have left Religious Zionism to seek a deal with Ofer Winter's Am Israel party. Am Israel has recently fallen below the electoral threshold in some polls, partly due to controversy surrounding past statements by Yosef Haddad.

Another option considered was the Likud forming an agreement with Am Israel to bolster its chances and reduce vote loss within the bloc, which would then likely lead to an agreement between Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit. However, with the Likud's finalized deal with Religious Zionism and Zehut, Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit and Winter's Am Israel are the main parties in the bloc still seeking surplus vote partners.

They cited a Likud candidate and former Labor MK, Eyal Goldshmidt, who made similar remarks.

Am Israel has not yet publicly commented, likely assessing their remaining options. Winter also has the possibility of an agreement with Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's HaMeyuladnikim VeHaKalkalit party, which has expressed willingness to sign with him. However, recent polls show HaMeyuladnikim VeHaKalkalit crossing the threshold while Am Israel struggles. For both parties, a surplus vote agreement is only meaningful if they pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, as only votes for parties that pass the threshold are counted in the distribution of mandates.