Israel's Election Surplus Vote Agreements Explained

Ahead of the upcoming elections, Israeli political parties are utilizing surplus vote agreements, a legal mechanism designed to maximize their electoral power and prevent the "waste" of votes. These agreements, typically forged between ideologically aligned parties or those within the same political bloc, allow for the transfer of votes between parties during the distribution of Knesset seats after all votes are counted. The threshold for entering the Knesset is 3.25% of the vote, equivalent to approximately four seats. In the previous election in 2022, the minimum number of votes required to pass this threshold was 154,855. The "vote measure," which determines the number of votes needed for one seat, was 36,227 in 2022. Surplus vote agreements operate under the Bader-Ofer Law from 1973. Under such an agreement, the votes of the two participating parties are pooled as if they ran on a single list. After initial seat allocation, the remaining votes are redistributed. The combined vote measure for the pair is calculated by dividing their total votes by the number of seats they have already secured, plus one. The list or pair with the highest resulting measure receives the next available seat. This process is repeated for subsequent seats. If the surplus agreement pair wins an additional seat, an internal calculation determines which of the two parties receives it, usually favoring the larger party, though the smaller party can also benefit.

Parties have until 11 days before election day to sign these agreements, subject to the Central Elections Committee's approval. For the upcoming elections, this deadline is October 16. While typically signed by ideologically close parties aiming to prevent vote loss, the agreement is only valid if both parties pass the electoral threshold, introducing a risk if a partner fails to do so. This system, while providing an advantage to larger parties, can also benefit smaller ones. Parties that do not sign an agreement risk having their surplus votes go uncounted, potentially reducing their seat count and drawing criticism from within their political camp for weakening the bloc's overall strength.

Several agreements have already been announced. The four parties opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's continued tenure, Naftali Bennett's Bayit Yehudi and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, announced their surplus vote pact. Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party formed an agreement with Yair Golan's Democrats. The Joint List and Ra'am have also signed an agreement to prevent vote wastage, pledging a clean campaign. In the last election, three Arab parties ran separately, with Balad failing to pass the threshold. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Likud party signed an agreement with the National Religious Party, leaving Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit to potentially align with Ofer Winter's "Am Yisrael" party or stand alone. Otzma Yehudit criticized the Likud's refusal to sign with them, suggesting it was a move to diminish their party and exclude Ben-Gvir from a planned unity government. Hendel and Zelekha's party also offered an agreement to Winter, which he did not accept. The ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, were the latest to sign, emphasizing their continued cooperation based on the guidance of their religious leaders, aiming to protect Torah study and yeshiva students' status.