Haredi Parties May Sit Out Government, Back Opposition

Haredi political sources are speculating that Shas and United Torah Judaism may opt to remain in the opposition following the upcoming elections, potentially refusing to recommend Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or candidate Gadi Eisenkot for government formation. This scenario is partly driven by the unresolved issue of the conscription law for yeshiva students, with concerns that even if passed by the Knesset, it could be disqualified by the High Court of Justice, thus delaying their potential coalition entry.

These assessments come as the "Change Bloc" parties are reportedly exploring a strategy to alter the balance of power in the Knesset even before a new government is formed. Their plan involves potentially replacing the current Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, after the new Knesset convenes. This move aims to empower the Change Bloc to influence the parliamentary agenda and advance legislative initiatives, including establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7th events and limiting the Prime Minister to two terms.

The Change Bloc's strategy, if successful in electing a new Knesset Speaker, could also extend to forming parliamentary committees, such as the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, to push legislation. This would allow them to advance certain measures while Netanyahu remains in a caretaker role. However, electing a new speaker does not guarantee a majority for passing laws or ending the outgoing government's term.

Meanwhile, Haredi sources believe that if the Change Bloc can secure a majority to replace the Knesset Speaker, they might also garner support for forming a government, possibly a minority government relying on external support from Ra'am, or even a coalition including Ra'am. They suggest that current party leader objections could shift post-election if a genuine opportunity to replace Netanyahu arises.

Shas and United Torah Judaism are not expected to actively support the Change Bloc's move to replace the Knesset Speaker, with their stance on the vote remaining unclear. They are likely to await election results and clarity on government formation possibilities before committing. The speculation about them not recommending Netanyahu does not necessarily translate to a willingness to help the Change Bloc replace him, with the conscription law crisis being a primary consideration. Even if a conscription law is passed, Haredi parties may hesitate to join a coalition if they fear judicial challenges to the law.