Haredi Parties May Back Eisenkot for PM in Exchange for Draft Law Concessions

Senior politicians from the Lithuanian-Haredi public are suggesting they would support a "change government" if the Likud party fails to form a coalition. This support, however, would be limited and conditional. United Torah Judaism (UTJ) would allow Gadi Eisenkot, if he is the "change bloc's" agreed-upon candidate, to form a government and would support him from the outside in exchange for a moderate draft law, similar to a proposal by former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman in 2018. Senior figures in the "change bloc" have dismissed this possibility, stating they will not agree to it.

A senior UTJ official stated, "This will not be a law that brings masses of Haredim to the army. It will be a law without criminal sanctions, only economic ones, which we can manage." He added, "We know that drafting Haredim is the flagship of Bennett and Lieberman, but in return, we can offer them the world: support for their government and, most importantly, Benjamin Netanyahu will go to the opposition and perhaps leave the public stage."

This scenario is envisioned for a situation where Netanyahu cannot form a government and Eisenkot seeks to rely on Arab parties. In such a case, the Haredim would enter the picture to gain political capital: exemption from military service by law for yeshiva students. Unlike UTJ, Shas is not involved in this scenario and will remain with Prime Minister Netanyahu. UTJ MK Yaakov Asher is seen as less committed to Netanyahu than his predecessor Moshe Gafni and more willing to negotiate with Eisenkot.

Political commentator Yaakov Mimran of Kol Chai radio agrees with this premise, suggesting that if the "change bloc" has around 58 seats, UTJ would be the first to contact Eisenkot to preempt other parties. He noted, "We would prefer a convenient draft law over another round of elections." Mimran explained that UTJ and Shas cannot sit in a government with Lieberman, Lapid, and Golan, but they "cannot live anymore with these arrests that terrorize the young population and frighten every yeshiva student. They must have a draft law now."

Several processes indicate a shift in Haredi priorities regarding the draft. The replacement of Moshe Gafni with Yaakov Asher as faction chairman is significant, as Asher is reportedly less beholden to Netanyahu. Furthermore, substantial donations from Haredi billionaires abroad have eased financial pressures on yeshivas, making them more amenable to economic sanctions. The current situation, where Haredim feel like criminals unable to move freely due to potential arrests for draft evasion, is also a major driver for seeking a new law.

However, some within UTJ express deep divisions, with one politician stating the party is more divided than ever and that any such deal would likely be struck down by the High Court of Justice. A very senior politician from the "change bloc" dismissed the idea entirely, calling it "unlikely to happen" and suggesting the Haredim might be spinning to extract promises from Netanyahu.