Arab World Reassesses Oct. 7, Hamas Support Declines

A growing rift is emerging across the Arab world regarding the events of October 7, with even Hamas opponents hesitant to endorse certain actions. Three years after the Hamas attack on Israel, assessments of the October 7, 2023, events are increasingly divided within Arab nations. A significant portion of Palestinians are questioning the effectiveness of armed struggle, and belief in Hamas's victory has notably waned. However, criticism of the organization does not yet translate into support for its disarmament or normalization of relations with Israel. These conclusions stem from a study by the Psychological Warfare group, which analyzed public opinion polls, media reports, political statements, and social media discussions in Arab countries.

A key finding indicates a shift in Palestinian perceptions of the war's outcome. An August 2026 poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found only 20% of respondents viewed Hamas as victorious, down from 39% in October 2025. Sixty percent believed there was no victor, and 15% identified Israel as the winner. In Gaza, approximately 65% agreed that armed resistance failed to protect Palestinians and led to widespread destruction, compared to 35% in Judea and Samaria. Despite this, 62% in Gaza opposed Hamas disarmament before a full Israeli troop withdrawal, a figure rising to 79% in Judea and Samaria.

The research also highlighted a severe trust deficit in Palestinian leadership. Hamas and Fatah each garnered about 24% support, while 44% felt neither organization deserved to govern. A striking 84% of respondents called for the resignation of Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas.

Concurrently, criticism of Hamas's decision to launch the October 7 attack is intensifying in Arab media, with some publications labeling it a strategic error with catastrophic consequences for Gaza's population. This sentiment is particularly visible in Lebanese and Saudi media, as well as among Palestinians opposing Hamas leadership, though the organization itself continues to frame the attack as a historic achievement, a stance echoed by Iran-aligned groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Arab governments are seeking regional stability and a reduction in the influence of armed groups, but public support for normalization with Israel remains low. A study cited by Arab Barometer indicated that only about 4% in Egypt and Jordan supported normalization, with 95% in Egypt opposing it. The report also noted that Arab media disproportionately focuses on the war's impact on Gaza rather than remembering Israelis killed or abducted on October 7. While opposing narratives circulate on social media, researchers found no evidence of a large, organized bot network driving these messages. The study's authors cautioned that the findings reflect general discussion trends rather than precise nationwide views.