IDF Prepares for Hezbollah Disarmament Amid Concerns Over Lebanese Army Capabilities

Nearly three months after a pilot program began to transfer security responsibility in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), the IDF's Northern Command remains skeptical of the LAF's ability to meet the defined expectations. The IDF has developed operational plans for the disarmament of Hezbollah and is prepared to implement them if the Lebanese initiative fails. While criticizing the pace and scope of the LAF's current activities, the IDF acknowledges some changes in their conduct, particularly in open areas containing Hezbollah infrastructure.

The pilot program is currently focused on two villages, Tor Charqiye and Zawtar al-Sharqiyya, referred to by the IDF as "the Zawtars," in the mountainous eastern sector of southern Lebanon. The IDF is assessing the effectiveness of the LAF's operations and has no current plans to expand the program to other areas until the LAF's capacity to meet requirements is clarified. These requirements include dismantling all Hezbollah infrastructure, establishing temporary housing for residents, and connecting them to water, electricity, and sewage systems.

The IDF understands that Hezbollah's disarmament is a long-term process. They are considering two primary approaches: either the Lebanese state, through its army, successfully disarms Hezbollah, or Israel undertakes direct military action if the pilot program is deemed a failure. The IDF emphasizes its readiness to execute direct military plans for Hezbollah's disarmament.

Northern Command estimates that the LAF currently possesses significant legitimacy to operate within Lebanon, partly due to the heavy cost of the recent conflict and criticism of Hezbollah within the Shiite community. However, the IDF believes this legitimacy has not yet translated into the necessary operational scale to fulfill the program's objectives. The critical question is whether the LAF can transform its current activities into an effective and sustained effort against Hezbollah's infrastructure. Until a clear answer emerges, the IDF maintains the option of direct military intervention.

Currently, residents are not permitted to return to the security zone in southern Lebanon, and any attempts to enter are managed according to policies designed to keep the area sterile. In villages north of this zone, the situation is more complex, with some experiencing a partial return of residents while others have seen very few residents return.