Iran Prepares for Conflict But Lacks Urgent Reason for Attack, Expert Says
Translated & summarized from Cursorinfo by baba
Expert Avner Vilen stated that Iran is preparing for conflict but lacks urgent reasons for an attack, despite being at its limit of readiness. He believes recent actions have increased the risk of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and harmed Israel's strategic position. Vilen agreed that eliminating the elder Khamenei was a mistake, noting Khamenei had prohibited nuclear weapon development. The ultimate success of current strategies will be judged by whether the Iranian regime falls or the country obtains nuclear weapons first.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Iran is preparing for conflict but lacks urgent reasons for an attack, according to expert Avner Vilen.
- Vilen, a former Israeli defense official, believes Iran is at its limit of readiness for conflict.
- Recent actions have increased the risk of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, Vilen stated.
- Vilen agreed that eliminating the elder Khamenei was a mistake.
- Khamenei had issued a religious decree prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons.
- The success of current strategies will be judged by whether the Iranian regime falls or the country obtains nuclear weapons first.
Avner Vilen, an expert on Iran's nuclear program and former high-ranking Israeli defense official, stated that Iran is preparing for a new round of conflict, engaging in both defensive and offensive preparations. He believes there are no urgent reasons for Iran to launch an attack at this time. Vilen commented on the prevailing rumors and panic surrounding a potential confrontation with Iran in an interview with Radio 103fm.
"The Iranians are preparing very seriously for the next round, both in defense and offense," Vilen said. "Today, one cannot speak of the element of surprise regarding Iran. They are effectively stretched to their limit in their readiness for the next round." He added that nothing he observed indicated an urgent need for an attack, particularly given that Iran's efforts to restore capabilities, such as missiles or air defense, do not justify a strike at a sensitive moment for democratic decision-making in both Israel and the United States.
Vilen also addressed an unusual statement by Yair Golan regarding the elimination of the elder Khamenei, agreeing that it was a mistake. He explained that on February 27, Iran was a divided country facing significant unrest and a collapsing economy. He noted that Khamenei did not make decisions to pursue nuclear weapons and had even issued a religious decree prohibiting their development.
"We need to clearly understand what the alternative is. If this story ends with Iran having nuclear weapons, it will undoubtedly be a mistake," Vilen stated. When asked if Israel and the United States had won the war, he responded that the outcome would only be assessed later, depending on whether the regime falls or Iran acquires nuclear weapons first. He cautioned that the recent actions have increased the risk of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons and have negatively impacted the strategic positions of Israel and the United States.
Vilen further elaborated that while the elder Khamenei was destined to die and last June's war was justified, Operation "Lion's Roar" aimed at regime change, which did not occur. He concluded that the goal is currently receding, and failure to achieve it could lead to a situation where Iran recovers with nuclear weapons while Israel becomes a pariah.
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