US Military Prepared for Potential Strikes Against Iran

The Pentagon has instructed the U.S. Central Command to finalize military preparations for a potential resumption of conflict with Iran. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering options for strikes before the November 3 midterm elections, according to U.S. officials and media reports. Axios, citing U.S. and Israeli officials, stated that the military instructions did not include a specific timeline for attacks and that Trump has not made a final decision. However, sources indicated that any significant escalation could involve intensive bombing of Iranian targets related to its energy sector, infrastructure, and nuclear program.

Pentagon officials confirmed their role is to prepare military options for the President, while a White House official stated all options remain available to Trump. The White House reportedly asked the Pentagon to prepare military options against Iran before the midterms, with one key consideration being to demonstrate progress in confronting Iran and potentially lower fuel prices before voters head to the polls. Discussions within the U.S. administration are ongoing regarding the scope of potential strikes, target selection, and whether the plan will proceed to execution. CENTCOM is developing options for limited strikes alongside broader scenarios targeting Iran's energy sector.

An Israeli official told Axios that discussions in Israel about a potential large-scale resumption of combat operations against Iran have increased recently, but the likelihood of this occurring before the elections is not high, though not entirely ruled out. The probability of renewed conflict is expected to rise significantly after the U.S. midterm elections. Trump's national security team met recently at Camp David to discuss, among other issues, the possibility of resuming large-scale military operations against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated after the meeting that discussions focused on long-term foreign policy planning.

Despite the push for military options, proponents acknowledge that a limited strike might not be sufficient to force Iran back to negotiations or to open the Strait of Hormuz and lower fuel prices before the elections. They believe such a strike could, however, allow Trump to project strength on the Iran issue or present it as a political and military achievement. Conversely, other assessments warn that a limited, indecisive attack could be counterproductive, potentially exposing U.S. and allied forces in the Gulf to Iranian retaliatory attacks and depleting U.S. ammunition stockpiles. The Trump administration believes its economic pressure campaign against Iran is effective but estimates it could take months before Tehran enters serious negotiations. Trump is reportedly frustrated by the lack of a successful resolution, increasing his openness to resuming attacks, though some advisors suggest a post-election timing would be better to avoid bringing the conflict back to the forefront of the political and media agenda before the vote.

Meanwhile, uncertainty persists regarding the future of the conflict amid stalled diplomatic efforts. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Ghaani stated that Tehran has outlined its conditions for ending the conflict and establishing security in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's response to U.S. proposals to be delivered via intermediaries. In a new escalation regarding the Strait, Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an advisor to the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, claimed that navigation routes Tehran deems illegal will soon be closed. He asserted that these routes, located in the southern part of the Strait near Oman's coast, were created by destroying rock formations and used for oil smuggling. Naghdi declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed" and fully controlled by Iranian armed forces until Iranian demands are met. In contrast, Rubio stated that Iran has lost full control of the Strait of Hormuz and that its economy is in sharp decline.

Ghaani also announced that Iran and Oman have agreed on the geographical coordinates for safe navigation routes in the Strait of Hormuz and mechanisms for announcing these routes to relevant international bodies. This agreement comes amid increasing pressure on maritime traffic in the region and ongoing Iranian threats to close routes it considers illegal. In a separate incident, a tanker sailing off the northern coast of Qatar reported being hit by several projectiles, resulting in unspecified casualties, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations authority. The incident occurred approximately 51 nautical miles from the Qatari coast, and authorities have launched an investigation.

Despite the military escalation and mutual threats, Trump stated that his envoy Steve W. Knight is working on reaching an agreement with Iran and making progress. Speaking at a rally in Texas, Trump indicated that a deal is not his preferred option but noted that Iran is willing to make concessions to halt hostilities, while emphasizing he will not allow it to obtain a nuclear peace. These statements came amid growing debate in the U.S. about the war's implications for security, fuel prices, and the upcoming elections.

In military developments, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper inspected the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, praising its crew's performance after a long deployment related to the war against Iran. The carrier is scheduled to arrive in San Diego after over 260 days of continuous mission. Esper stated the carrier participated in operations against Iran, including 3,693 combat sorties, 450 Tomahawk missile launches, and the use of approximately 1.37 million pounds of munitions. He also reported the sinking of 64 Iranian warships and the destruction of 21 anti-ship cruise missiles, with no casualties or aviation incidents recorded despite the high operational tempo.

Another indicator of the military cost of the war is a report from the U.S. Congressional Research Service stating that at least 81 U.S. military aircraft and aerial vehicles have been destroyed or damaged since military operations against Iran began on February 28. The figure includes fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and drones, with an estimated value of approximately $3.3 billion. MQ-9 Reaper drones were among the most frequently lost, with at least 45 of this type lost. The report also listed 12 F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft as losses, three of which were destroyed by friendly fire over Kuwaiti airspace. The report, updated in October, indicated that loss figures may rise as new data is incorporated.