Is Likud's Comeback in Polls a Bluff? 'Depends How You Count'
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
A recent poll indicates a potential rise in support for Benjamin Netanyahu's "change bloc," but pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar of Maariv questions its validity, stating it "depends how you count." Lazar noted that the bloc's potential majority has decreased as Arab parties gain influence. The poll's findings suggest the comeback might be a bluff, influenced by electoral calculations and party consolidation.
The story in 4 lines · by baba
- Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar questions the validity of a recent poll showing a comeback for Benjamin Netanyahu's "change bloc."
- Lazar stated the "change bloc's" potential majority has decreased as Arab parties gain influence in the Knesset.
- The consolidation of three parties could significantly boost the "change bloc's" seat count, potentially to 13 or 14.
- Lazar suggested the perceived comeback might be a bluff, dependent on how votes are counted and party dynamics.
A recent poll suggests a potential increase in support for the "change bloc" led by Benjamin Netanyahu, but pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar of Maariv suggests this comeback might be misleading. Lazar explained that the "change bloc" was once close to achieving a majority even without Arab parties, but this has diminished recently. He noted that as the weight of Arab parties within the Knesset increases, the "change bloc's" potential gains decrease. He highlighted the uncertainty surrounding support for Winter's party, stating that only 31% of those who say they will vote for it are completely sure.
Lazar further elaborated on the dynamics of the "change bloc," suggesting that the consolidation of three parties could lead to a significant increase in their combined vote, potentially reaching 13 or 14 seats, or even more. However, he cautioned that the perceived comeback for Netanyahu's bloc might be influenced by how votes are counted and the fluctuating influence of Arab political parties within the overall Knesset composition. The poll's findings raise questions about the true strength of the "change bloc" and the loyalty of its potential voters, especially for parties hovering near the electoral threshold.
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