New Poll Shows Netanyahu Gaining, Blocs Tied, Eisenkot Leads PM Preference
Translated & summarized from Hamal by baba
A new Maariv poll shows the Likud party gaining one seat, bringing its coalition bloc to 52 mandates, while the opposition bloc also stands at 52. Gadi Eisenkot's party remains the largest with 21 seats, and he leads Benjamin Netanyahu in prime minister preference. The poll also reveals public opposition to Arab parties in the coalition but support for Haredi parties, and assesses voter motivation for the upcoming elections.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- A new Maariv poll shows the coalition bloc at 52 mandates and the opposition bloc also at 52 mandates.
- Gadi Eisenkot's party is the largest with 21 seats, while Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud has 20 seats.
- Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu in preference for prime minister by 46% to 40%.
- 59% of Israelis oppose an Arab party in the next coalition, while 53% support a Haredi party.
- 78% of respondents are certain they will vote in the upcoming elections.
- The poll was conducted by Lazar Research for Maariv with 700 respondents and a margin of error of ±3.7%.
A new poll published by Maariv indicates a slight strengthening of the Likud party, adding one seat to the coalition bloc, bringing it to 52 mandates compared to 51 in the previous survey. Conversely, the Zionist opposition bloc has weakened by one seat, also standing at 52 mandates. The Yishar! party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, remains the largest single party with 21 mandates, while Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party rises to 20 seats. According to the poll, Naftali Bennett's Bihadash party secures 13 mandates. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, lose a mandate, settling at nine seats, the same as Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu. Otzma Yehudit, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, drops to eight mandates, while United Torah Judaism and Shas each receive seven. The Arab Joint List (Hadash, Ta'al, Balad) garners seven mandates, and the Religious Zionism and Zehut joint list, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin respectively, strengthens to six mandates. Ra'am, under Mansour Abbas, receives five mandates, and the Am Israel party led by Ofer Winter, along with the Reservists and Economic party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, each secure four mandates.
In terms of blocs, Netanyahu's coalition, including Ofer Winter's party, now holds 52 mandates, an increase of one. The Zionist opposition bloc drops to 52 mandates from 53 last week. Arab parties collectively win 12 mandates, while the Hendel-Zelekha list receives an additional four and is not included in the bloc calculations. Parties below the electoral threshold include Benny Gantz's Blue and White with 0.9%, Moti Lightner's Haredi Public party with 0.8%, Avi Maoz's Noam for Israel with 0.6%, and Gadi Yevarkan's Tzomet Beit Yisrael with 0.3%.
Regarding preference for prime minister, Gadi Eisenkot continues to lead Netanyahu by six percentage points, with 46% preferring Eisenkot versus 40% for Netanyahu. Netanyahu narrows the gap with Naftali Bennett to two points, with 44% favoring Bennett and 42% Netanyahu. Against Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu leads 44% to 38%. In a separate question asking respondents to choose their preferred prime minister from a list, Netanyahu leads with 38% (up from 34% on September 24), followed by Eisenkot with 24%, Bennett with 14%, Lieberman with 6%, and Yair Lapid with 3%. Eight percent do not want any of the candidates, and 7% are unsure.
Among Zionist opposition voters, 46% prefer Eisenkot for prime minister, compared to 29% for Bennett and 12% for Lieberman. Within the coalition voters, 84% prefer Netanyahu. The poll also examined public opinion on the composition of the next government: 59% of respondents oppose a role for an Arab party in the coalition, while 36% support it. Among supporters, 16% fully endorse it, and 20% would consider it only if no other government could be formed. Coalition voters overwhelmingly oppose including an Arab party (93%), while 58% of Zionist opposition voters support it. Conversely, including a Haredi party in the coalition is supported by 53% of Israelis, with 41% opposed. Coalition voters strongly support this (87%), compared to only 27% of Zionist opposition voters.
Regarding voter turnout motivation, 78% of respondents are certain they will vote, 18% estimate they will vote, and 4% estimate or are certain they will not. Among Zionist opposition voters, 86% are sure to vote, versus 81% of coalition voters. The highest certainty of voting is among Shas voters (93%) and Democrats voters (91%). Conversely, only 68% of United Torah Judaism voters and 61% of Ra'am voters are sure to vote. When asked about certainty in their party choice, 45% are completely sure, and 46% are fairly sure, with 9% unsure. Ofer Winter's Am Israel party voters show a relatively low rate of absolute certainty in their choice, at only 31%.
The survey was conducted for Maariv by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, using the Panel4All online respondent panel from October 7-8, 2026. It included 700 respondents, representing a sample of Israel's adult population aged 18 and over, with a maximum margin of error of ±3.7%.
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