Youth Vote Differently: Poll Shows Fragmented Support, New Parties Emerge

A new poll conducted among 543 Israeli youth aged 18-22, who are voting for the first time, reveals a significantly different political landscape compared to the general public. Unlike typical polls where two parties vie for the top spot, among young voters, support is dispersed across numerous parties, with none reaching 10%. The survey, conducted by Dialog on October 5, indicates a relatively high intention to vote, with 67% certain they will participate and 19% considering it. However, 14% remain undecided.

Among the notable findings, the ultra-Orthodox party Yahadut HaTorah is projected to receive 8 mandates, while the new "Ultra-Orthodox Public" party garners 5 mandates. In contrast, Shas fails to pass the electoral threshold. The "Bachad" party, led by Naftali Bennett, leads slightly with 16 mandates, followed by "Otzma Yehudit" and "Yashar!" each with 15 mandates. "Religious Zionism-Identity" and Likud each secure approximately 8% of the vote, translating to 14 mandates.

Other parties like "Yisrael Beiteinu," "Democrats," Yahadut HaTorah, and the "Joint List" each receive around 5% of the vote, amounting to nine mandates, except for Yahadut HaTorah which gets eight. The "United List" of reservists and the economic party receives 6 mandates (4% of the vote). The new "Ultra-Orthodox Public" party, which has not previously passed the electoral threshold in general polls, gains over 3% of the youth vote, securing 5 mandates, possibly indicating growing popularity among young people disillusioned with the established ultra-Orthodox leadership.

Several prominent parties, including Shas, Ra'am, Am Echad Yisrael led by Ofer Vinter, and Blue and White, do not pass the electoral threshold in this demographic. The "United List" of Sharan Hashkal and "Green Leaf" receive about 1% of the votes. A significant participation gap exists between Jewish and Arab respondents, with 71% of Jewish youth certain to vote compared to 53% of Arab youth. Among secular youth, support is concentrated among Bachad (20%), Yashar! (18%), and Democrats (17%). Religious youth show strong support for "Religious Zionism-Identity" (36%) and Otzma Yehudit (22%).

Regarding voter influence, 46% of respondents state their choice will be similar to at least one parent, while 28% report a different choice from both. Security policy (27%) and the cost of living (25%) are the most significant considerations for young voters. Secular youth prioritize the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox and burden sharing (26%), and the failures of October 7th and its investigation (22%), while religious youth are primarily concerned with security policy (50%).