El Niño Phenomenon Sparks Global Concern, Threatens Extreme Weather in Israel

The world is bracing for a potentially severe "super El Niño" event, with scientists warning of extreme weather patterns that could impact agriculture, food supplies, and disease outbreaks globally. El Niño, a natural phenomenon characterized by a cyclical change in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, is expected to be particularly powerful this year. When Pacific waters unusually warm, they alter air currents and weather systems worldwide.

Experts predict this year's El Niño could see Pacific sea surface temperatures rise by 3.8 degrees Celsius above average, with some months potentially even higher. This phenomenon, translating from Spanish as "the boy," has historically caused extreme events like floods and heatwaves. The last major El Niño a decade ago brought a severe winter to California with heavy rains and snow, leading to mudslides and floods.

Countries are already experiencing El Niño's effects. Melbourne, Australia, recently faced significant rainfall and flooding. The extreme weather also raises concerns about the spread of viruses and diseases, as stagnant water from early rains can create breeding grounds for mosquitoes, according to Nadav Davidovitch, a member of the steering committee for dealing with the climate crisis.

Forecaster Boaz Dayan of Israel Weather stated that while predicting exact outcomes is difficult, extreme weather events are certain. For Israel, the Meteorological Service has warned of an increased risk of intense rainfall and floods this coming winter, with precipitation expected to increase by 11% to 15%. Some areas, including the Negev, Golan, and Galilee, could see rainfall up to 145% above average. Dayan anticipates very rainy October-November, potentially doubling average rainfall nationwide, leading to flash floods in the south, hail, and powerful storms, with a possibility of significant snowfall in Jerusalem towards winter.