Spain Heads Toward Historic Election Amid Housing Crisis and Political Turmoil

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called snap elections for November 29, plunging the country into a dramatic political period. The early elections were triggered by widespread protests over a severe housing crisis, which saw property and rental prices surge by over 66% in the last five years. Polls indicate a significant lead for the conservative People's Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, potentially forming a government with the far-right Vox party. If this occurs, it would mark the first time since the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975 that a far-right party would enter the Spanish government.

Sánchez, known for his political resilience, aims to shift the public narrative by making the election a referendum on housing policy. Following the opposition's previous rejection of housing legislation, his government has reintroduced revised measures, including tax breaks for renters and landlords, loans for first-time buyers, and an extended eviction ban. Sánchez is urging voters to grant him a strong parliamentary majority to implement these solutions, framing the opposition's previous votes against these measures as a central campaign issue.

The housing crisis has been exacerbated by a severe shortage of affordable homes. A recent eviction of an elderly woman, María del Carmen Abascal, from her Madrid apartment, captured on camera, ignited public fury and made her a symbol of the crisis. Abascal passed away at 87 shortly after the incident, prompting Sánchez to offer condolences and promise that such evictions would not happen again. Vox leaders accused Sánchez of exploiting her death for political gain.

Recent polls show the PP leading with approximately 33% of the vote, followed by Sánchez's Socialist Party at 26%, and Vox at around 18%. Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, could potentially double its previous seat count and become a key partner in a right-wing coalition. While the PP and Vox together would likely secure a parliamentary majority, this coalition would involve Vox members in ministerial positions and the adoption of some of their key policies, potentially leading to difficult negotiations due to significant differences on issues like immigration and EU relations.

The PP holds a more nuanced stance on Israel compared to Sánchez's government, condemning Hamas's October 7th attacks and recognizing Israel's right to self-defense, but criticizing actions in Gaza. Vox, however, adopts a more explicitly pro-Israel position, maintaining close ties with the Netanyahu government and rejecting claims of genocide in Gaza. Vox's platform also emphasizes stricter immigration policies, prioritizing Spanish citizens for public services, and reducing support for gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights, principles already incorporated into coalition agreements in several regions.