Trump Weighs Limited Strike or Wider War Against Iran

The Pentagon has ordered U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to prepare for a potential resumption of broad combat operations against Iran, according to U.S. officials speaking to Axios. The directive was issued days ago, but no attack date has been set, and President Trump has not made a final decision. This follows a report by The Atlantic that the White House had asked the Pentagon to develop strike plans executable before the November midterm elections. Initially, the focus was on limited actions, but the U.S. military is now preparing for a wider conflict scenario.

Trump's national security team met at Camp David for an extended discussion that included the possibility of renewed hostilities. Simultaneously, Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke for the second time in days, following Netanyahu's consultations with Israeli security chiefs on Iran. The timing is particularly sensitive, with Israeli elections on October 27 and U.S. midterms a week later. Israeli sources suggest that a strike before the elections is possible, but discussions also encompass post-election scenarios.

One option being considered in Washington is a limited strike before November 3. Supporters believe a targeted operation could provide Trump with a military achievement against Iran, potentially influencing voters. However, even proponents acknowledge it might not secure the Strait of Hormuz or bring Iran back to negotiations. Opponents warn of an Iranian response that could reignite conflict and further increase energy prices.

A second option involves a broader campaign targeting strategic Iranian infrastructure, including energy facilities and sites related to its nuclear program. Plans reviewed range from minor strikes to a major assault on Iran's energy industry. Two Israeli sources indicated to Axios that a large-scale campaign could involve U.S.-Israeli cooperation, potentially including the Israeli Air Force, though this remains speculative.

The U.S. has already increased its military presence in the region, deploying the USS Theodore Roosevelt and additional Marines. This buildup enhances operational capabilities and serves as leverage against Tehran. Israel is primarily concerned about Iran's potential retaliation, with assessments suggesting large volleys of ballistic missiles could be launched at Israel. Iranian commanders are reportedly considering a harsher response than in previous rounds, potentially targeting countries supporting U.S. actions, and Iran-aligned groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen have been asked to prepare for coordinated activity.

Amidst the military preparations, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to deteriorate, with a significant drop in cargo ship traffic and crude oil transit. Despite efforts to reroute oil, threats to shipping persist, with the highest weekly number of attacks and harassment incidents against tankers in the region recorded recently. Energy markets are reacting, with Brent crude prices rising despite plans to release oil from emergency reserves. Washington is also pursuing diplomatic channels through Qatari mediators, awaiting an Iranian response to a U.S. proposal involving concessions on its nuclear program. A key sticking point remains the sequence of actions, with Tehran demanding sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade first, while Washington insists on tangible nuclear commitments. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran possessed significant amounts of uranium enriched to 60% before attacks in June 2025, but the full status of remaining material and access for inspections remain unclear.