Trump Weighs Iran Strikes Ahead of Midterm Elections

U.S. defense officials have instructed the U.S. Central Command to prepare for a resumption of military operations against Iran, according to American officials. The directive comes as President Donald Trump is reportedly considering strikes on Iran before the upcoming November midterm elections, as revealed by The Atlantic, citing two U.S. administration sources. This planning reflects Trump's desire to lower fuel prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before voting begins.

U.S. Central Command is tasked with developing operational plans, though the scope, targets, and timing of potential strikes remain under discussion within the administration. Supporters of military action believe that additional operations, following a period of relative calm, could allow Trump to project strength and claim a "victory," potentially boosting Republican candidates in the elections. U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios that the military directives did not specify a strike date, and Trump has not made a final decision. Any military action could occur before the U.S. midterms or the Israeli elections scheduled a week earlier.

Large-scale combat operations could involve intensive bombing of Iranian targets related to energy, infrastructure, and its nuclear program. A Pentagon official told Axios that the department's role is to prepare military options for the president, while a White House official confirmed that all options are on the table. The official added that the U.S. is in a strong regional position, controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's economy suffers from the conflict's repercussions. Trump faces a choice between an "easy" or "hard" path, and will select what he deems best for the U.S.

These developments follow a multi-hour National Security Council meeting at Camp David, where the conflict and other issues were discussed. An Israeli official told Axios that part of the meeting addressed the possibility of resuming large-scale combat operations against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that discussions focused on long-term foreign policy planning.

Proponents of military action acknowledge that limited strikes may not be sufficient to force Iran back to negotiations, restore safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, or lower fuel prices before the elections. One Republican source familiar with the deliberations suggested a strike could project an image of victory for Trump, coinciding with potential fuel price drops, followed by broader military action after the midterms. Trump had previously hinted at resuming the conflict, now in its eighth month.

However, any military move carries significant risks, with approximately 50,000 U.S. troops in the region potentially facing Iranian retaliation. U.S. Energy Information Administration data indicates that crude oil prices typically rise after military strikes resume, potentially increasing inflationary pressures rather than lowering fuel costs. Will Walldorf, a professor of international affairs at Wake Forest University, questioned the political and economic feasibility of strikes, noting that past military operations have not led to lower oil prices.